IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v290y2021i2p734-748.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach

Author

Listed:
  • Gatzert, Nadine
  • Martin, Alexander
  • Schmidt, Martin
  • Seith, Benjamin
  • Vogl, Nikolai

Abstract

Portfolio optimization is an ongoing hot topic of mathematical optimization and management science. Due to the current financial market environment with low interest rates and volatile stock markets, it is getting more and more important to extend portfolio optimization models by other types of investments than classical assets. In this paper, we present a mixed-integer multistage stochastic model that includes investment opportunities in irreversible and long-term infrastructure projects in the context of renewable energies, which are also subject to policy risk. On realistic time scales for investment problems of this type, the resulting instances are by far too large to be solved with today’s most evolved optimization software. Thus, we present a tailored moving-horizon approach together with suitable approximations and simplifications of the model. We evaluate these approximations and simplifications in a computational sensitivity analysis and derive a final model that can be tackled on a realistic instance by our moving-horizon approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Seith, Benjamin & Vogl, Nikolai, 2021. "Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 734-748.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:290:y:2021:i:2:p:734-748
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221720307463
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Luis M. Abadie & José M. Chamorro, 2014. "Valuation of Wind Energy Projects: A Real Options Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 7(5), pages 1-38, May.
    2. Longstaff, Francis A, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 407-431.
    3. Yu, Bosco Wing-Tong & Pang, Wan Kai & Troutt, Marvin D. & Hou, Shui Hung, 2009. "Objective comparisons of the optimal portfolios corresponding to different utility functions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 604-610, December.
    4. Andris Möller & Werner Römisch & Klaus Weber, 2008. "Airline network revenue management by multistage stochastic programming," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 355-377, October.
    5. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich & Szolgayová, Jana & Fuss, Sabine & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Renewable energy investment: Policy and market impacts," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 249-254.
    6. Ambrosius, M. & Egerer, J. & Grimm, V. & van der Weijde, A., 2019. "The role of expectations for market design – on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1943, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Taras Bodnar & Nestor Parolya & Wolfgang Schmid, 2015. "A closed-form solution of the multi-period portfolio choice problem for a quadratic utility function," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 229(1), pages 121-158, June.
    8. Mansini, Renata & Speranza, Maria Grazia, 1999. "Heuristic algorithms for the portfolio selection problem with minimum transaction lots," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 219-233, April.
    9. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.
    10. David B. Brown & James E. Smith, 2011. "Dynamic Portfolio Optimization with Transaction Costs: Heuristics and Dual Bounds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1752-1770, October.
    11. Nadine Gatzert & Thomas Kosub, 2014. "Insurers’ Investment in Infrastructure: Overview and Treatment under Solvency II," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 39(2), pages 351-372, April.
    12. Michael W. Brandt & Pedro Santa‐Clara, 2006. "Dynamic Portfolio Selection by Augmenting the Asset Space," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(5), pages 2187-2217, October.
    13. Fang, Yong & Chen, Lihua & Fukushima, Masao, 2008. "A mixed R&D projects and securities portfolio selection model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 700-715, March.
    14. Lin, Chang-Chun & Liu, Yi-Ting, 2008. "Genetic algorithms for portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 393-404, February.
    15. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    16. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
    17. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    18. Miguel Lobo & Maryam Fazel & Stephen Boyd, 2007. "Portfolio optimization with linear and fixed transaction costs," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 152(1), pages 341-365, July.
    19. Vasicek, Oldrich Alfonso, 1977. "Abstract: An Equilibrium Characterization of the Term Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(4), pages 627-627, November.
    20. Monjas-Barroso, Manuel & Balibrea-Iniesta, José, 2013. "Valuation of projects for power generation with renewable energy: A comparative study based on real regulatory options," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 335-352.
    21. Markowitz, Harry, 2014. "Mean–variance approximations to expected utility," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 346-355.
    22. Michal Kaut & Kjetil Midthun & Adrian Werner & Asgeir Tomasgard & Lars Hellemo & Marte Fodstad, 2014. "Multi-horizon stochastic programming," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 179-193, January.
    23. Yoshida, Nakahiro, 1992. "Estimation for diffusion processes from discrete observation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 220-242, May.
    24. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    25. Gatzert, Nadine & Kosub, Thomas, 2016. "Risks and risk management of renewable energy projects: The case of onshore and offshore wind parks," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 982-998.
    26. Guigues, Vincent & Sagastizábal, Claudia, 2012. "The value of rolling-horizon policies for risk-averse hydro-thermal planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(1), pages 129-140.
    27. Gerard Gennotte & Alan Jung, 1994. "Investment Strategies under Transaction Costs: The Finite Horizon Case," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 385-404, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Secomandi, Nicola, 2023. "A review of the operations literature on real options in energy," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 309(2), pages 469-487.
    2. Radu Lupu & Adrian Cantemir Călin & Cristina Georgiana Zeldea & Iulia Lupu, 2021. "Systemic Risk Spillovers in the European Energy Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gatzert, Nadine & Vogl, Nikolai, 2016. "Evaluating investments in renewable energy under policy risks," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 238-252.
    2. Bilel Jarraya & Abdelfettah Bouri, 2013. "A Theoretical Assessment on Optimal Asset Allocations in Insurance Industry," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 2(4), pages 30-44, October.
    3. Vasileios PAPADIMITRIOU & Serafeim POLYZOS & Dimitrios TSIOTAS, 2023. "Renewable Energy Project Appraisal Using The Real Options Methodology," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 85-96, June.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    5. Kitzing, Lena & Juul, Nina & Drud, Michael & Boomsma, Trine Krogh, 2017. "A real options approach to analyse wind energy investments under different support schemes," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 83-96.
    6. Munk, Claus, 2015. "Financial Asset Pricing Theory," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198716457, Decembrie.
    7. Mansini, Renata & Ogryczak, Wlodzimierz & Speranza, M. Grazia, 2014. "Twenty years of linear programming based portfolio optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 518-535.
    8. Ravi Kashyap, 2022. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 315(2), pages 1175-1215, August.
    9. Rosadi, Dedi & Setiawan, Ezra Putranda & Templ, Matthias & Filzmoser, Peter, 2020. "Robust covariance estimators for mean-variance portfolio optimization with transaction lots," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 7(C).
    10. Dimson, Elroy & Mussavian, Massoud, 1999. "Three centuries of asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(12), pages 1745-1769, December.
    11. Ravi Kashyap, 2016. "Options as Silver Bullets: Valuation of Term Loans, Inventory Management, Emissions Trading and Insurance Risk Mitigation using Option Theory," Papers 1609.01274, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.
    12. Chang Shih-Chieh Bill & Tsai Chenghsien & Hung Li-Chuan, 2005. "Incorporating Foreign Equities in the Optimal Asset Allocation of an Insurer with the Consideration for Background Risks: Models and Numerical Illustrations," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Chen, Wei, 2015. "Artificial bee colony algorithm for constrained possibilistic portfolio optimization problem," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 125-139.
    14. Liu, Yong-Jun & Zhang, Wei-Guo, 2015. "A multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with minimum transaction lots," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(3), pages 933-941.
    15. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Chen, Xiaoyan & Ling, Xin & Smith, Tom & Zhu, Yushu, 2017. "Research in finance: A review of influential publications and a research agenda," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    16. Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten, 2004. "Optimal consumption and investment strategies with stochastic interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1987-2013, August.
    17. Hougaard, Jens Leth & Kronborg, Dorte & Smilgins, Aleksandrs, 2017. "Fair division of costs in green energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 220-230.
    18. Constantin Mellios, 2007. "Interest rate options valuation under incomplete information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 99-117, April.
    19. Buckley, Winston & Long, Hongwei & Marshall, Mario, 2016. "Numerical approximations of optimal portfolios in mispriced asymmetric Lévy markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 676-686.
    20. O. S. Rozanova & G. S. Kambarbaeva, 2015. "Optimal strategies of investment in a linear stochastic model of market," Papers 1501.07124, arXiv.org.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:290:y:2021:i:2:p:734-748. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.