IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cam/camdae/1943.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The role of expectations for market design – on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Ambrosius, M.
  • Egerer, J.
  • Grimm, V.
  • van der Weijde, A.

Abstract

Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce structural uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this structural uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. We propose a stochastic multilevel model, which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion and redispatch, taking into account uncertainty about the future market design. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. Our results reveal that expectations about future market structures have an important effect on investment decisions. Unlike most parametric uncertainties, structural uncertainty about the future market design can have a positive effect on welfare, even if a market design change does not actually take place, although there are distributional effects. This also implies that the welfare gains of a change to a more efficient market design are lower if market participants already anticipate this change.

Suggested Citation

  • Ambrosius, M. & Egerer, J. & Grimm, V. & van der Weijde, A., 2019. "The role of expectations for market design – on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1943, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1943
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/research-files/repec/cam/pdf/cwpe1943.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neuhoff, Karsten & Barquin, Julian & Bialek, Janusz W. & Boyd, Rodney & Dent, Chris J. & Echavarren, Francisco & Grau, Thilo & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Kunz, Friedrich & Nabe, 2013. "Renewable electric energy integration: Quantifying the value of design of markets for international transmission capacity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 760-772.
    2. Andreas Ehrenmann & Yves Smeers, 2011. "Generation Capacity Expansion in a Risky Environment: A Stochastic Equilibrium Analysis," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1332-1346, December.
    3. Munoz, Francisco D. & van der Weijde, Adriaan Hendrik & Hobbs, Benjamin F. & Watson, Jean-Paul, 2017. "Does risk aversion affect transmission and generation planning? A Western North America case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 213-225.
    4. Holmberg, Pär & Lazarczyk, Ewa, 2012. "Congestion Management in Electricity Networks: Nodal, Zonal and Discriminatory Pricing," Working Paper Series 915, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    5. Jacqueline Boucher & Yves Smeers, 2001. "Alternative Models of Restructured Electricity Systems, Part 1: No Market Power," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(6), pages 821-838, December.
    6. Adriaan Weijde & Benjamin Hobbs, 2011. "Locational-based coupling of electricity markets: benefits from coordinating unit commitment and balancing markets," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 223-251, June.
    7. Trepper, Katrin & Bucksteeg, Michael & Weber, Christoph, 2015. "Market splitting in Germany – New evidence from a three-stage numerical model of Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 199-215.
    8. BOUCHER , Jacqueline & SMEERS, Yves, 2001. "Alternative models of restructured electricity systems, part 1: no market power," LIDAM Reprints CORE 1538, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    9. Daxhelet, O. & Smeers, Y., 2007. "The EU regulation on cross-border trade of electricity: A two-stage equilibrium model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(3), pages 1396-1412, September.
    10. Pär Holmberg and Ewa Lazarczyk, 2015. "Comparison of congestion management techniques: Nodal, zonal and discriminatory pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    11. Ruiz, C. & Conejo, A.J., 2015. "Robust transmission expansion planning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 242(2), pages 390-401.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Simshauser, Paul & Billimoria, Farhad & Rogers, Craig, 2022. "Optimising VRE capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Eicke, Anselm & Khanna, Tarun & Hirth, Lion, 2020. "Locational investment signals - How to steer the siting of new generation capacity in power systems?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 41(6), pages 281-304.
    3. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Seith, Benjamin & Vogl, Nikolai, 2021. "Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 734-748.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ambrosius, M. & Egerer, J. & Grimm, V. & Weijde, A.H. van der, 2020. "Uncertain bidding zone configurations: The role of expectations for transmission and generation capacity expansion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 285(1), pages 343-359.
    2. Ambrosius, Mirjam & Egerer, Jonas & Grimm, Veronika & van der Weijde, Adriaan H., 2022. "Risk aversion in multilevel electricity market models with different congestion pricing regimes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Ambrosius, Mirjam & Grimm, Veronika & Kleinert, Thomas & Liers, Frauke & Schmidt, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2020. "Endogenous price zones and investment incentives in electricity markets: An application of multilevel optimization with graph partitioning," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    4. Krebs, Vanessa & Schewe, Lars & Schmidt, Martin, 2018. "Uniqueness and multiplicity of market equilibria on DC power flow networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 271(1), pages 165-178.
    5. Grimm, Veronika & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Weibelzahl, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2016. "Transmission and generation investment in electricity markets: The effects of market splitting and network fee regimes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 254(2), pages 493-509.
    6. Simshauser, Paul, 2024. "On static vs. dynamic line ratings in renewable energy zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Paul Simshauser & Farhad Billimoria & Craig Rogers, 2021. "Optimising VRE plant capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Working Papers EPRG2121, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Simshauser, Paul, 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia's National Electricity Market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    9. Martin Weibelzahl & Alexandra Märtz, 2020. "Optimal storage and transmission investments in a bilevel electricity market model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 287(2), pages 911-940, April.
    10. Grimm, Veronika & Rückel, Bastian & Sölch, Christian & Zöttl, Gregor, 2019. "Regionally differentiated network fees to affect incentives for generation investment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 487-502.
    11. Simshauser, P., 2021. "Renewable Energy Zones in Australia’s National Electricity Market," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Grimm, Veronika & Schewe, Lars & Schmidt, Martin & Zöttl, Gregor, 2017. "Uniqueness of market equilibrium on a network: A peak-load pricing approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 261(3), pages 971-983.
    13. Simshauser, Paul & Billimoria, Farhad & Rogers, Craig, 2022. "Optimising VRE capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Heffron, Raphael J. & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Sumarno, Theresia & Wagner, Jonathan & Weibelzahl, Martin & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2022. "How different electricity pricing systems affect the energy trilemma: Assessing Indonesia's electricity market transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    15. Joachim Bertsch & Simeon Hagspiel & Lisa Just, 2016. "Congestion management in power systems," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 290-327, December.
    16. Egerer, Jonas & Weibezahn, Jens & Hermann, Hauke, 2016. "Two price zones for the German electricity market — Market implications and distributional effects," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 365-381.
    17. Gürkan, G. & Ozdemir, O. & Smeers, Y., 2013. "Generation Capacity Investments in Electricity Markets : Perfect Competition," Other publications TiSEM 97828b2c-3630-4b66-8ac9-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    18. Bertsch, Joachim & Hagspiel, Simeon & Just, Lisa, 2016. "Congestion management in power systems - Long-term modeling framework and large-scale application," EWI Working Papers 2015-3, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    19. Jonas Egerer & Jens Weibezahn & Hauke Hermann, 2015. "Two Price Zones for the German Electricity Market: Market Implications and Distributional Effects," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1451, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    20. Lété, Quentin & Smeers, Yves & Papavasiliou, Anthony, 2022. "An analysis of zonal electricity pricing from a long-term perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity; investment; structural uncertainty; market design; bidding zones; nodal pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1943. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Dyer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.econ.cam.ac.uk/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.