IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/enp/wpaper/eprg1915.html

The role of expectations for market design - on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Mirjam Ambrosius

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Jonas Egerer

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Veronika Grimm

    (Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU))

  • Adriaan H van der Weijde

    (University of Edinburgh)

Abstract

Ongoing policy discussions on the reconfiguration of bidding zones in European electricity markets induce structural uncertainty about the future market design. This paper deals with the question of how this structural uncertainty affects market participants and their long-run investment decisions in generation and transmission capacity. We propose a stochastic multilevel model, which incorporates generation capacity investment, network expansion and redispatch, taking into account uncertainty about the future market design. Using a stylized two-node network, we disentangle different effects that uncertainty has on market outcomes. Our results reveal that expectations about future market structures have an important effect on investment decisions. Unlike most parametric uncertainties, structural uncertainty about the future market design can have a positive effect on welfare, even if a market design change does not actually take place, although there are distributional effects. This also implies that the welfare gains of a change to a more efficient market design are lower if market participants already anticipate this change.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Mirjam Ambrosius & Jonas Egerer & Veronika Grimm & Adriaan H van der Weijde, 2019. "The role of expectations for market design - on structural regulatory uncertainty in electricity markets," Working Papers EPRG1915, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    • Handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1915
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/eprg-wp1915.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Anselm Eicke, Tarun Khanna, and Lion Hirth, 2020. "Locational Investment Signals: How to Steer the Siting of New Generation Capacity in Power Systems?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6), pages 281-304.
    2. Gatzert, Nadine & Martin, Alexander & Schmidt, Martin & Seith, Benjamin & Vogl, Nikolai, 2021. "Portfolio optimization with irreversible long-term investments in renewable energy under policy risk: A mixed-integer multistage stochastic model and a moving-horizon approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(2), pages 734-748.
    3. Simshauser, Paul & Billimoria, Farhad & Rogers, Craig, 2022. "Optimising VRE capacity in Renewable Energy Zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • L51 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - Economics of Regulation
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:enp:wpaper:eprg1915. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ruth Newman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/jicamuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.