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The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A

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  • Paucar-Caceres, A.
  • Bandala, E.R.
  • Wright, G.H.

Abstract

The potential impacts of Global Climate Change (GCC) in zones where water is scarce, such as along the US–Mexico border is, and will continue to be, a key concern for the future sustainability of humanity. This paper estimates the variation in quality/quantity water due to climate change and assesses its impact on community development in the US–Mexico border region of the Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Water Basin. To estimate variation in different water quality parameters, we use a conservative model with most probable scenarios for temperature/precipitation produced by the International Panel on Climate Change. We propose a system dynamics model to understand the complex interaction of factors governing the quantity/quality of water and their effects on social and economic conditions. The model simulates, for a 70-year period, policies and decisions that have the potential to improve conditions and prevent risks that may lead to social unrest and hinder economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Paucar-Caceres, A. & Bandala, E.R. & Wright, G.H., 2017. "The impact of global climate change on water quantity and quality: A system dynamics approach to the US–Mexican transborder regionAuthor-Name: Duran-Encalada, J.A," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 567-581.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:256:y:2017:i:2:p:567-581
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.016
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    1. Wang, Lizhong & Fang, Liping & Hipel, Keith W., 2008. "Basin-wide cooperative water resources allocation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 190(3), pages 798-817, November.
    2. Giles Atkinson & Fernando Machado & Susana Mourato, 2000. "Balancing Competing Principles of Environmental Equity," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 32(10), pages 1791-1806, October.
    3. Luis Felipe Luna-Reyes & Jorge A. Durán-Encalada & Erick R. Bandala, 2013. "Exploring Alternatives for Sustainable Development in the Tamiahua Wetlands," Journal of Entrepreneurship, Management and Innovation, Fundacja Upowszechniająca Wiedzę i Naukę "Cognitione", vol. 9(2), pages 5-28.
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    2. Liu, Qingyu & Shen, Bin & Wen, Xin, 2023. "Role of climate-smart agriculture in fighting against climate change in competitive supply chains," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    3. bahri, muhamad, 2020. "Analysis of the water, energy, and food nexus using system archetypes: A case study in the Jatiluhur reservoir, West Java, Indonesia," SocArXiv c9b7d, Center for Open Science.
    4. Park, Jangho & Bayraksan, Güzin, 2023. "A multistage distributionally robust optimization approach to water allocation under climate uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 849-871.
    5. Mir, R. & Azizyan, G. & Massah, A. & Gohari, A., 2022. "Fossil water: Last resort to resolve long-standing water scarcity?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    6. Langarudi, Saeed P. & Maxwell, Connie M. & Bai, Yining & Hanson, Austin & Fernald, Alexander, 2019. "Does Socioeconomic Feedback Matter for Water Models?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-45.

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