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Randomness in preference orderings, outcomes and attribute tastes: An application to journey time risk

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  • Batley, Richard
  • Ibáñez, J. Nicolás

Abstract

Within the broad area of probabilistic modelling of individual discrete choice, we develop three strands of discussion. First, we outline a theoretical framework for the modelling of individual discrete choice under risk, distinguishing between three specific sources of randomness; in preference orderings, in outcomes, and in attribute tastes. Second, we apply this theoretical modelling framework to the domain of journey time risk (or ‘reliability’), a subject which has acquired prominence in the transportation policies of many countries. Third, we apply the modelling framework empirically, based upon a Stated Preference experiment of 2395 rail travellers choosing between alternative journeys embodying different levels of journey time risk. Across the sample of travellers, we estimate a mean value of scheduled journey time of 25.62pence/min, against a median of 18.55pence/min. We further estimate a mean ‘reliability ratio’ (ratio of the value of standard deviation of journey time to the value of scheduled journey time) of 2.07, against a median of 0.85. The properties of the distribution of the reliability ratio suggest a predominant behaviour of aversion to journey time risk.

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  • Batley, Richard & Ibáñez, J. Nicolás, 2012. "Randomness in preference orderings, outcomes and attribute tastes: An application to journey time risk," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 157-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eejocm:v:5:y:2012:i:3:p:157-175
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jocm.2013.03.003
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    6. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
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    8. Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2016. "Impact of information on risk attitudes: Implications on valuation of reliability and information," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 16-34.

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