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A simple joint model for returns, volatility and volatility of volatility

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  • Ding, Yashuang (Dexter)

Abstract

We propose a model that allows for conditional heteroskedasticity in the volatility of asset returns and incorporates current return information into the volatility nowcast and forecast. Our model can capture all stylised facts of asset returns even with Gaussian innovations and is simple to implement. Moreover, we show that our model converges weakly to the GARCH-type diffusion as the length of the discrete time intervals between observations goes to zero. Empirical evidence shows that our model has a better fit, a more efficient parameter estimator as well as more accurate volatility and VaR forecasts than other common GARCH-type models.

Suggested Citation

  • Ding, Yashuang (Dexter), 2023. "A simple joint model for returns, volatility and volatility of volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 521-543.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:232:y:2023:i:2:p:521-543
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2021.09.012
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    2. Wu, Xinyu & Zhao, An & Cheng, Tengfei, 2023. "A Real-Time GARCH-MIDAS model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GARCH; SV; Forecasting; Nowcasting; Volatility of volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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