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A simple model for now-casting volatility series

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Abstract

Nowcasting volatility of financial time series appears difficult with classical volatility models. This paper proposes a simple model, based on an ARMA representation of the log-transformed squared returns, that allows to estimate current volatility, given past and current returns, in a very simple way. The model can be viewed as a degenerate case of the stochastic volatility model with perfect correlation between the two error terms. It is shown that the volatility nowcasts do not depend on this correlation, so that both models provide the same nowcasts for given parameter values. A simulation study suggests that the ARMA and SV models have a similar performance, but that in cases of moderate persistence the ARMA model is preferable. An extension of the ARMA model is proposed that takes into account the so-called leverage effect. Finally, the alternative models are applied to a long series of daily S&P 500 returns.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

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  • Breitung, J. & Hafner, C., 2014. "A simple model for now-casting volatility series," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2014046, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    • Handle: RePEc:aiz:louvad:2014046
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    Cited by:

    1. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Gribisch, Bastian & Seifert, Miriam Isabel, 2019. "Exponential smoothing of realized portfolio weights," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 222-237.
    2. Kejin Wu & Sayar Karmakar, 2023. "A model-free approach to do long-term volatility forecasting and its variants," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, December.
    3. Ding, Yashuang (Dexter), 2023. "A simple joint model for returns, volatility and volatility of volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 521-543.
    4. Kelvin Mutum, 2020. "Volatility Forecast Incorporating Investors’ Sentiment and its Application in Options Trading Strategies: A Behavioural Finance Approach at Nifty 50 Index," Vision, , vol. 24(2), pages 217-227, June.
    5. Ding, Y., 2021. "Augmented Real-Time GARCH: A Joint Model for Returns, Volatility and Volatility of Volatility," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2112, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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