Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Matching and semi-parametric IV estimation, a distance-based measure of migration, and the wages of young men

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ham, John C.
  • Li, Xianghong
  • Reagan, Patricia B.
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    Our paper estimates the effect of US internal migration on wage growth for young men between their first and second job. Our analysis of migration extends previous research by: (i) exploiting the distance-based measures of migration in the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979 (NLSY79); (ii) allowing the effect of migration to differ by schooling level and (iii) using propensity score matching to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET) for movers and (iv) using local average treatment effect (LATE) estimators with covariates to estimate the average treatment effect (ATE) and ATET for compliers. We believe the Conditional Independence Assumption (CIA) is reasonable for our matching estimators since the NLSY79 provides a relatively rich array of variables on which to match. Our matching methods are based on local linear, local cubic, and local linear ridge regressions. Local linear and local ridge regression matching produce relatively similar point estimates and standard errors, while local cubic regression matching badly over-fits the data and provides very noisy estimates. We use the bootstrap to calculate standard errors. Since the validity of the bootstrap has not been investigated for the matching estimators we use, and has been shown to be invalid for nearest neighbor matching estimators, we conduct a Monte Carlo study on the appropriateness of using the bootstrap to calculate standard errors for local linear regression matching. The data generating processes in our Monte Carlo study are relatively rich and calibrated to match our empirical models or to test the sensitivity of our results to the choice of parameter values. The estimated standard errors from the bootstrap are very close to those from the Monte Carlo experiments, which lends support to our using the bootstrap to calculate standard errors in our setting. From the matching estimators we find a significant positive effect of migration on the wage growth of college graduates, and a marginally significant negative effect for high school dropouts. We do not find any significant effects for other educational groups or for the overall sample. Our results are generally robust to changes in the model specification and changes in our distance-based measure of migration. We find that better data matters; if we use a measure of migration based on moving across county lines, we overstate the number of moves, while if we use a measure based on moving across state lines, we understate the number of moves. Further, using either the county or state measures leads to much less precise estimates. We also consider semi-parametric LATE estimators with covariates (Frölich 2007), using two sets of instrumental variables. We precisely estimate the proportion of compliers in our data, but because we have a small number of compliers, we cannot obtain precise LATE estimates.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VC0-51S25MN-2/2/1592aa36a80d89038ccd0fd901575020
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Econometrics.

    Volume (Year): 161 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (April)
    Pages: 208-227

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:2:p:208-227

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom

    Related research

    Keywords: US internal migration Propensity score matching LATE;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. George J. Borjas & Stephen G. Bronars & Stephen J. Trejo, 1992. "Self-Selection and Internal Migration in the United States," NBER Working Papers 4002, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Kennan & James R. Walker, 2011. "The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 211-251, 01.
    3. Frolich, Markus, 2007. "Nonparametric IV estimation of local average treatment effects with covariates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 35-75, July.
    4. Tunali, Insan, 2000. "Rationality of Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 893-920, November.
    5. Borjas, George J & Bronars, Stephen G & Trejo, Stephen J, 1992. "Assimilation and the Earnings of Young Internal Migrants," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 170-75, February.
    6. Guido W. Imbens, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Average Treatment Effects under Exogeneity: A Review," NBER Technical Working Papers 0294, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul E. Gabriel & Susanne Schmitz, 1995. "Favorable Self-Selection and the Internal Migration of Young White Males in the United States," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 30(3), pages 460-471.
    8. Keisuke Hirano & Guido W. Imbens & Geert Ridder, 2003. "Efficient Estimation of Average Treatment Effects Using the Estimated Propensity Score," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1161-1189, 07.
    9. Topel, Robert H & Ward, Michael P, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 439-79, May.
    10. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2008. "On the Failure of the Bootstrap for Matching Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 76(6), pages 1537-1557, November.
    11. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
    12. Fröhlich, Markus & Lechner, Michael, 2006. "Exploiting Regional Treatment Intensity for the Evaluation of Labour Market Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 5728, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Joshua D. Angrist & Guido W. Imbens, 1995. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," NBER Technical Working Papers 0118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Falaris, Evangelos M, 1987. "A Nested Logit Migration Model with Selectivity," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 28(2), pages 429-43, June.
    15. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra E, 1997. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 605-54, October.
    16. Michael Lechner, 2000. "An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 35(2), pages 347-375.
    17. Alberto Abadie & Guido W. Imbens, 2006. "Large Sample Properties of Matching Estimators for Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(1), pages 235-267, 01.
    18. Donald W. K. Andrews & Moshe Buchinsky, 2000. "A Three-Step Method for Choosing the Number of Bootstrap Repetitions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(1), pages 23-52, January.
    19. Chris Robinson & Nigel Tomes, 1982. "Self-Selection and Interprovincial Migration in Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(3), pages 474-502, August.
    20. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
    21. Hanushek, Eric A, 1973. "Regional Differences in the Structure of Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 55(2), pages 204-13, May.
    22. James Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Jeffrey Smith & Petra Todd, 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1017-1098, September.
    23. Ernst P. Goss & Niles C. Schoening, 1984. "Search Time, Unemployment, and the Migration Decision," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 19(4), pages 570-579.
    24. Linneman, Peter D. & Graves, Philip E., 1983. "Migration and job change: a multinomial logit approach," MPRA Paper 19922, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Buchinsky, Moshe, 2001. "Evaluation of a three-step method for choosing the number of bootstrap repetitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 345-386, July.
    26. Glaeser, Edward L & Mare, David C, 2001. "Cities and Skills," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(2), pages 316-42, April.
    27. Raphael, Steven & Riker, David A., 1999. "Geographic Mobility, Race, and Wage Differentials," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 17-46, January.
    28. Jeffrey J. Yankow, 2003. "Migration, Job Change, and Wage Growth: A New Perspective on the Pecuniary Return to Geographic Mobility," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 483-516.
    29. McCall, B P & McCall, J J, 1987. "A Sequential Study of Migration and Job Search," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 5(4), pages 452-76, October.
    30. Imbens, Guido W & Rubin, Donald B, 1997. "Estimating Outcome Distributions for Compliers in Instrumental Variables Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 555-74, October.
    31. Bartel, Ann P, 1979. "The Migration Decision: What Role Does Job Mobility Play?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(5), pages 775-86, December.
    32. Zhong Zhao, 2004. "Using Matching to Estimate Treatment Effects: Data Requirements, Matching Metrics, and Monte Carlo Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 91-107, February.
    33. Jeffrey Yankow, 1999. "The Wage Dynamics of Internal Migration within the United States," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 265-278, Summer.
    34. Markus Frölich, 2004. "Finite-Sample Properties of Propensity-Score Matching and Weighting Estimators," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 77-90, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Kantarevic, Jasmin & Kralj, Boris, 2012. "Link between Pay for Performance Incentives and Physician Payment Mechanisms: Evidence from the Diabetes Management Incentive in Ontario," IZA Discussion Papers 6474, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    2. Eliane El Badaoui & Eric Strobl & Frank Walsh, 2014. "The Impact of Internal Migration on Local Labour Markets in Thailand," Working Papers 2014-071, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    3. Krishnan, Pramila & Krutikova, Sofya, 2013. "Non-cognitive skill formation in poor neighbourhoods of urban India," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 68-85.
    4. Mario Liebensteiner, 2012. "Estimating the Income Gain of Seasonal Labour Migration," WIFO Working Papers 430, WIFO.
    5. Ulf Rinne & Arne Uhlendorff & Zhong Zhao, 2013. "Vouchers and caseworkers in training programs for the unemployed," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1089-1127, December.
    6. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Woldehanna, Tassew, 2013. "Does internal migration improve overall well-being in Ethiopia?:," ESSP working papers 55, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:161:y:2011:i:2:p:208-227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.