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Resuscitating the ad hoc loss function for monetary policy analysis

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  • Paez-Farrell, Juan

Abstract

Working with micro-founded loss functions to derive and analyse optimal policy ensures consistency with the model used and overcomes the misleading prescriptions that result from using exogenous ad hoc loss functions. However, when allowance is made for the fact that different theories of inflation persistence can result in the same, observationally equivalent, hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve such conclusions may no longer hold. Each theory implies its own loss function and will therefore result in different policy prescriptions. In this paper I analyse the welfare consequences of using ad hoc loss functions versus the micro-founded, but potentially incorrect, policy objectives.

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  • Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2014. "Resuscitating the ad hoc loss function for monetary policy analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(3), pages 313-317.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:123:y:2014:i:3:p:313-317
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2014.03.010
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    Cited by:

    1. Wieland, Volker & Wolters, Maik, 2013. "Forecasting and Policy Making," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 239-325, Elsevier.
    2. Daniel Kienzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Hysteresis in Potential Output and Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(4), pages 371-396, September.
    3. Kienzler, Daniel & Schmid, Kai Daniel, 2013. "Monetary policy and hysteresis in potential output," University of Tübingen Working Papers in Business and Economics 55, University of Tuebingen, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, School of Business and Economics.
    4. Wieland, Volker & Binder, Michael & Lieberknecht, Philipp & Quintana, Jorge, 2017. "Model Uncertainty in Macroeconomics: On the Implications of Financial Frictions," CEPR Discussion Papers 12013, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2016. "Dynamic Effects of Changes in the Exchange Rate System," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 111-161, March.
    6. William Gatt, 2018. "Housing boom-bust cycles and asymmetric macroprudential policy," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2018, Central Bank of Malta.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; Commitment; Loss function; Robustness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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