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Spatial impacts of the CAP post-2013 and climate change scenarios on agricultural intensification and environment in Austria

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  • Kirchner, Mathias
  • Schönhart, Martin
  • Schmid, Erwin

Abstract

We assess impacts of the latest CAP reform and regional climate change scenarios on agricultural land use intensification and environment in Austria for the period 2025–2040. A spatially explicit integrated assessment based on sequentially coupled models quantifies the impacts at a 1km grid resolution in order to take into account the heterogeneity of agricultural production and environment. The CAP post-2013 will lead to a shift in direct payments from cropland to grassland dominated production regions as well as to a slight decrease in regional producer surpluses in Austria. The economic impact of climate change scenarios depends on the spatial location and the precipitation scenario. The CAP post-2013 will lead to intensification of agricultural land use in favorable cropland and grassland regions as well as to extensification in marginal areas. Regional climate change amplifies land use intensification with increases in crop and forage yields, e.g. in Alpine regions, and land use extensification with declining crop yields, e.g. in eastern cropland regions. Environmental indicators deteriorate at national level in all scenarios. Spatially highly diverging impacts call for more targeted policy measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchner, Mathias & Schönhart, Martin & Schmid, Erwin, 2016. "Spatial impacts of the CAP post-2013 and climate change scenarios on agricultural intensification and environment in Austria," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 35-56.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:123:y:2016:i:c:p:35-56
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.12.009
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    2. Franz Sinabell & Martin Schönhart & Erwin Schmid, 2018. "Austrian Agriculture 2020-2050. Scenarios and Sensitivity Analyses on Land Use, Production, Livestock and Production Systems," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 61571, February.
    3. Schönhart, Martin & Trautvetter, Helene & Parajka, Juraj & Blaschke, Alfred Paul & Hepp, Gerold & Kirchner, Mathias & Mitter, Hermine & Schmid, Erwin & Strenn, Birgit & Zessner, Matthias, 2018. "Modelled impacts of policies and climate change on land use and water quality in Austria," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 500-514.
    4. Takahashi, Ryo & Todo, Yasuyuki & Funaki, Yukihiko, 2018. "How Can We Motivate Consumers to Purchase Certified Forest Coffee? Evidence From a Laboratory Randomized Experiment Using Eye-trackers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 107-121.
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    6. Ryo Takahashi, 2017. "Climate, Crime, And Suicide: Empirical Evidence From Japan," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(01), pages 1-14, February.
    7. Kirchweger, Stefan & Clough, Yann & Kapfer, Martin & Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf & Kantelhardt, Jochen, 2020. "Do improved pollination services outweigh farm-economic disadvantages of working in small-structured agricultural landscapes? – Development and application of a bio-economic model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

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