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Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU

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  • Esposito, Piero
  • Messori, Marcello

Abstract

This paper assesses the long-run sustainability of rebalancing in trade positions within the Eurozone by looking at the impact of prices and Unit Labor Costs (ULCs) for core and peripheral countries. We estimate import demand and export supply functions and we decompose Real Effective Exchange Rates to separate the dynamics of the ULC elements – wages and labor productivity – and of consumer prices from those of nominal exchange rates. The rebalances of peripheral countries mainly resulted from the effect of domestic demand and inflation on imports, the persistence of these rebalances from that of international demand and wages on exports. Productivity plays a major role only in core countries. It follows that European adjustments are fragile.

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  • Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2019. "Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 147-167.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:47:y:2019:i:c:p:147-167
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2018.12.006
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Imbalances; Trade; Panel data; Competitiveness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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