IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v82y2015ip1153-1176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone

Author

Listed:
  • Roberto Tamborini

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecca12155-abs-0001"> The unprecedented sovereign debt crisis across the eurozone has prompted a new generation of models with ‘self-fulfilling’ attacks on public debt. The model presented in this paper shows that multiple equilibria arise as investors have no direct information, and form heterogeneous rational beliefs, about the government's sustainable limit of the solvency primary balance. If beliefs of insolvency are sufficiently large, then the government is bound to default, although initial solvency conditions are satisfied. Several issues are discussed concerning the role of initial conditions, fiscal shocks and the policy options to escape from the default domain.​

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Tamborini, 2015. "Heterogeneous Market Beliefs, Fundamentals and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the Eurozone," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1153-1176, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i::p:1153-1176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecca.2015.82.issue-s1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    2. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    4. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2015. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 108-123.
    5. Mr. Daniel S Kanda, 2011. "Modeling Optimal Fiscal Consolidation Paths in a Selection of European Countries," IMF Working Papers 2011/164, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Grossman, Sanford J & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1980. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 393-408, June.
    7. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    10. von Hayek, Friedrich August, 1989. "The Pretence of Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3-7, December.
    11. Antonio Di Cesare & Giuseppe Grande & Michele Manna & Marco Taboga, 2012. "Recent estimates of sovereign risk premia for euro-area countries," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 128, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Paul De Grauwe & Yuemei Ji, 2012. "Mispricing of Sovereign Risk and Multiple Equilibria in the Eurozone," LICOS Discussion Papers 30412, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    13. Volker Wieland & Maik Wolters, 2011. "The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 247-292, June.
    14. Roman Frydman & Edmund S. Phelps (ed.), 2013. "Rethinking Expectations: The Way Forward for Macroeconomics," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 10002.
    15. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    16. Mordecai Kurz, 2011. "Symposium: on the role of market belief in economic dynamics, an introduction," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 47(2), pages 189-204, June.
    17. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Nickel, Christiane, 2009. "What explains the surge in euro area sovereign spreads during the financial crisis of 2007-09?," Working Paper Series 1131, European Central Bank.
    18. Roberto Tamborini, 1997. "Knowledge and economic behaviour. A constructivist approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 49-72.
    19. Simone Manganelli & Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "What drives spreads in the euro area government bond market? [‘What “hides” behind sovereign debt ratings?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 24(58), pages 191-240.
    20. Buiter, Willem & Rahbari, Ebrahim, 2013. "Why do governments default, and why don't they default more often?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Daniel Gros, 2013. "Foreign debt versus domestic debt in the euro area," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 502-517, AUTUMN.
    22. Wei Xiong, 2013. "Bubbles, Crises, and Heterogeneous Beliefs," NBER Working Papers 18905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Adrian, Tobias & Gros, Daniel, 1999. "A Stochastic Model of Self-Fulfilling Crises in Fixed Exchange Rate Systems," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(2), pages 129-146, April.
    24. Charles Wyplosz, 2006. "European Monetary Union: the dark sides of a major success [‘The macroeconomics of low inflation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 208-261.
    25. Gros, Daniel, 2012. "A simple model of multiple equilibria and sovereign default," CEPS Papers 7174, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    26. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2010. "Leads and lags in sovereign credit ratings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2614-2626, November.
    27. Miguel A. Segoviano & Carlos Caceres & Vincenzo Guzzo, 2010. "Sovereign Spreads: Global Risk Aversion, Contagion or Fundamentals?," IMF Working Papers 2010/120, International Monetary Fund.
    28. Ms. Edda Zoli & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2009. "Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2009/222, International Monetary Fund.
    29. Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2011. "Fiscal Expectations Under the Stability and Growth Pact: Evidence from Survey Data," IMF Working Papers 2011/048, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Dosi & Marcello Minenna & Andrea Roventini & Roberto Violi, 2021. "Making the Eurozone work: a risk-sharing reform of the European Stability Mechanism," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 617-657, April.
    2. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2021. "Government size and speculative attacks on public debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 79-89.
    3. Pompeo Della Posta, 2018. "Fiscal austerity and monetary easing: which one is to be praised for ending the euro area crisis?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 15(1), pages 165-189, June.
    4. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    5. Ghulam, Yaseen & Derber, Julian, 2018. "Determinants of sovereign defaults," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 43-55.
    6. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2019. "Competitive or recession gains? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 147-167.
    7. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "The Existential Trilemma of EMU in a Model of Fiscal Target Zone," EconPol Working Paper 66, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    8. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "Central bank intervention, public debt and interest rate target zones," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 311-323.
    9. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2018. "A model of currency crises with heterogeneous market beliefs," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-195.
    11. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2022. "COVID-19, Economic Policies and Public Debt Sustainability in Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-20, April.
    12. Pompeo Della Posta & Enrico Marelli & Marcello Signorelli, 2020. "A market‐financed and growth‐enhancing investment plan for the euro area," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(3), pages 604-632, July.
    13. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2016. "Improved Structural Competitiveness or Deep Recession? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," LEAP Working Papers 2016/3, Luiss Institute for European Analysis and Policy.
    14. Roberto Tamborini, 2018. "Macroeconomic Imbalances and the Euro Zone. Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 14, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    15. Della Posta, Pompeo, 2023. "Public debt sustainability in a target zone model with heterogeneous agents," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 440-450.
    16. Pompeo Della Posta, 2021. "An analysis of the current backlash of economic globalization in a model with heterogeneous agents," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 101-120, February.
    17. Pompeo Della Posta, 2022. "The Revival of Target Zone Modeling," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 775-805, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giuliana Passamani & Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2014. "Sustainability vs. credibility of fiscal consolidation. A Principal Components test for the Euro Zone," DEM Discussion Papers 2014/09, Department of Economics and Management.
    2. Roberto Tamborini, 2012. "Market opinions, fundamentals and the euro-sovereign debt crisis," Department of Economics Working Papers 1210, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Roberto Tamborini & Matteo Tomaselli, 2020. "When does public debt impair economic growth? A literature review in search of a theory," DEM Working Papers 2020/7, Department of Economics and Management.
    4. Paolo Canofari & Giancarlo Marini & Giovanni Piersanti, 2015. "Expectations and systemic risk in EMU government bond spreads," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 711-724, April.
    5. Eleonora Cutrini and Giorgio Galeazzi, 2014. "Contagion in the Euro crisis: capital flows and trade linkages," Working Papers 44-2014, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE), revised Nov 2014.
    6. Eleonora Cutrini & Giorgio Galeazzi, 2017. "External Public Debt, Trade Linkages and Contagion During the Eurozone Crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(9), pages 1718-1749, September.
    7. Roberto Tamborini, 2014. "Interest-Rate Spread and Public-Debt Dynamics in a Two-Country Monetary-Union Portfolio Model," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 243-261, April.
    8. Roberto Tamborini, 2017. "Europe at the Interdependence War," EconPol Working Paper 2, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    9. Pompeo Della Posta & Roberto Tamborini, 2021. "The Existential Trilemma of EMU in a Model of Fiscal Target Zone," EconPol Working Paper 66, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Claeys, Peter & Cimadomo, Jacopo & Poplawski Ribeiro, Marcos, 2014. "How do financial institutions forecast sovereign spreads?," Working Paper Series 1750, European Central Bank.
    11. Afonso, António & Arghyrou, Michael G. & Gadea, María Dolores & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2018. "“Whatever it takes” to resolve the European sovereign debt crisis? Bond pricing regime switches and monetary policy effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-30.
    12. Cornand, Camille & Gandré, Pauline & Gimet, Céline, 2016. "Increase in home bias in the Eurozone debt crisis: The role of domestic shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 445-469.
    13. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2012. "The EMU sovereign-debt crisis: Fundamentals, expectations and contagion," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 658-677.
    14. Blot, Christophe & Ducoudré, Bruno & Timbeau, Xavier, 2016. "Sovereign debt spread and default in a model with self-fulfilling prophecies and asymmetric information," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 281-299.
    15. António Afonso & Michael G. Arghyrou & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2012. "The determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU," Working Papers 2012_14, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    16. de Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Macchiarelli, Corrado, 2017. "Fundamentals versus market sentiments in the euro bond markets: implications for QE," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 85127, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5bhbhfsmhj981b00go8c6saind is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Raffaela Giordano & Marcello Pericoli & Pietro Tommasino, 2013. "Pure or Wake-up-Call Contagion? Another Look at the EMU Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 131-160, June.
    20. Manfred G?rtner & Bj?rn Griesbach, 2017. "Rating Agencies, Self-Fulfilling Prophecy and Multiple Equilibria? An Empirical Model of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis 2009-2011," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 7(1), pages 199-226, June.
    21. Juodžiukynienė Greta, 2016. "The Significance of Country-Specific and Common Risk Factors for CEE Government Bond Spreads Changes," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 95(1), pages 84-111, January.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i::p:1153-1176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.