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Global Value Chains During the Great Trade Collapse: A Bullwhip Effect?

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  • Carlo Altomonte
  • Filippo Di Mauro
  • Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano
  • Armando Rungi
  • Vincent Vicard

Abstract

This paper analyzes the performance of global value chains during the trade collapse. To do so, it exploits a unique transaction-level dataset on French firms containing information on cross-border monthly transactions matched with data on worldwide intra-.rm linkages as defined by property rights (multinational business groups, hierarchies of firms). This newly assembled dataset allows us to distinguish firm-level transactions among two alternative organizational modes of global value chains: internalization of activities (intra- group trade/trade among related parties) or establishment of supply contracts (arm's length trade/trade among unrelated parties). After an overall assessment of the role of global value chains during the trade collapse, we document that intra-group trade in intermediates was characterized by a faster drop followed by a faster recovery than arm's length trade. Amplified fluctuations in terms of trade elasticities by value chains have been referred to as the "bullwhip effect" and have been attributed to the adjustment of inventories within supply chains. In this paper we first con.rm the existence of such an effect due to trade in inter- mediates, and we underline the role that different organizational modes can play in driving this adjustment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp1131.

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Date of creation: Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1131

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Web page: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/series.asp?prog=CEP

Related research

Keywords: trade collapse; multinational firms; global value chains; hierarchies of firms; vertical integration;

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References

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  1. Andrew B. Bernard & Marco Grazzi & Chiara Tomasi, 2011. "Intermediaries in International Trade: Direct versus indirect modes of export," NBER Working Papers 17711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Abdul Abiad & Petia Topalova & Prachi Mishra, 2011. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Working Papers 11/3, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2009. "The crisis-resilience of services trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4917, The World Bank.
  4. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why is manufacturing trade rising even as manufacturing output is falling?," Working Papers 04-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  5. Ines Buono & Harald Fadinger, 2012. "The micro dynamics of exporting: evidence from French firms," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 880, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  6. Maria Bas & Juan Carluccio, 2009. "Wage Bargaining and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm," CEP Discussion Papers dp0963, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  7. Robert C. Feenstra & Barbara J. Spencer, 2005. "Contractual Versus Generic Outsourcing: The Role of Proximity," NBER Working Papers 11885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Bricongne, J-C. & Fontagné, L. & Gaulier, G. & Taglioni, D. & Vicard, V., 2009. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working papers 265, Banque de France.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2012. "The Great Synchronization of International Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp142, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  2. Elena Biewen & Daniela Harsch & Julia Spies, 2012. "The Determinants of Service Imports: The Role of Cost Pressure and Financial Constraints," IAW Discussion Papers 90, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
  3. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  4. Andrea Beltramello & Koen De Backer & Laurent Moussiegt, 2012. "The Export Performance of Countries within Global Value Chains (GVCs)," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2012/2, OECD Publishing.
  5. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2012. "Is East Asia’s Economic Fate Chained to the West?," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-11, CIRANO.
  7. Veronika Zavacka, 2012. "The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 148, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  8. Neugebauer, Katja & Spies, Julia, 2012. "Borrowing Locally, Operating Globally? Financing and Trading Patterns of Firms during the 2007/2008 Economic Crisis," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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