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US Trade and Inventory Dynamics

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  • George Alessandria
  • Joseph P. Kaboski
  • Virgiliu Midrigan

Abstract

We examine the source of the large fall and rebound in US trade in the recent recession. While trade fell and rebounded more than expenditures or production of traded goods, we find that relative to the magnitude of the downturn, these trade fluctuations were in line with those in previous business cycle fluctuations. We argue that the high volatility of trade is attributed to more severe inventory management considerations of firms involved in international trade. We present empirical evidence for autos as well as at the aggregate level that the adjustment of inventory holdings help explain these fluctuations in trade.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 101 (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (May)
Pages: 303-07

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:3:p:303-07

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  1. George Alessandria & Joseph Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2008. "Inventories, lumpy trade, and large devaluations," Working Paper Series WP-08-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joe Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2012. "Trade, Inventories, and International Business Cycles," 2012 Meeting Papers 762, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Virgiliu Midrigan & Joseph Kaboski & George Alessandria, 2010. "The Great Trade Collapse of 2008-09: An Inventory Adjustment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 107, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Sam & Neiman, Brent & Romalis, John, 2013. "Trade and the Global Recession," Working Papers 2013-21, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
  5. Davin Chor & Kalina Manova, 2010. "Off the Cliff and Back? Credit Conditions and International Trade during the Global Fnancial Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Mary Amiti & David E. Weinstein, 2009. "Exports and Financial Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Logan Lewis & Linda Tesar & Andrei Levchenko, 2010. "The Collapse of International Trade During the 2008-2009 Crisis: In Search of the Smoking Gun," 2010 Meeting Papers 109, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
  9. Boileau, Martin, 1999. "Trade in capital goods and the volatility of net exports and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 347-365, August.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kropf, Andreas & Sauré, Philip, 2014. "Fixed costs per shipment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 166-184.
  2. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2013. "The Great Trade Collapse," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 375-400, 05.
  3. George Alessandria & Joseph Kaboski & Virgiliu Midrigan, 2012. "Trade Wedges, Inventories, and International Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 18191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Gabor Békés & Lionel Gérard Fontagné & Balazs Murakozy & Vincent Vicard, 2014. "Shipment Frequency of Exporters and Demand Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 4734, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Richard Pomfret, 2012. "The Post-2007 Crises and Europe's Place in the Global Economy," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 439, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
  6. Gábor Békés & Lionel Fontagné & Balázs Muraközy & Vincent Vicard, 2012. "How frequently firms export? Evidence from France," Working Papers 2012-06, CEPII research center.
  7. Veronika Zavacka, 2012. "The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 148, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  8. João Amador & Sónia Cabral, 2014. "Global Value Chains: Surveying Drivers, Measures and Impacts," Working Papers w201403, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  9. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2011. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies to the global financial crisis ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5637, The World Bank.
  10. Richard Pomfret, 2011. "Global Crises, Fiscal Imbalances and Global Instability: Interests and Reactions of Asian Economies," School of Economics Working Papers 2011-33, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
  11. Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2012. "Is East Asia’s Economic Fate Chained to the West?," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-11, CIRANO.
  12. Didier, Tatiana & Hevia, Constantino & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2012. "How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2052-2077.
  13. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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