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Global value chains during the great trade collapse: a bullwhip effect?

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  • Altomonte, Carlo
  • di Mauro, Filippo
  • Ottaviano, Gianmarco
  • Rungi, Armando
  • Vicard, Vincent

Abstract

This paper analyzes the performance of global value chains during the trade collapse. To do so, it exploits a unique transaction-level dataset on French firms containing information on cross-border monthly transactions matched with data on worldwide intrafirm linkages as defined by property rights (multinational business groups, hierarchies of firms). This newly assembled dataset allows us to distinguish firm-level transactions among two alternative organizational modes of global value chains: internalization of activities (intragroup trade/trade among related parties) or establishment of supply contracts (arm's length trade/trade among unrelated parties). After an overall assessment of the role of global value chains during the trade collapse, we document that intra-group trade in intermediates was characterized by a faster drop followed by a faster recovery than arm's length trade. Amplified fluctuations in terms of trade elasticities by value chains have been referred to as the "bullwhip effect" and have been attributed to the adjustment of inventories within supply chains. In this paper we first confirm the existence of such an effect due to trade in intermediates, and we underline the role that different organizational modes can play in driving this adjustment. JEL Classification: F23, F15, L22

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1412.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20121412

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Keywords: global value chains; hierarchies of firms; integration; Multinational firms; Trade collapse; vertical;

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References

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  1. Andrew B. Bernard & Marco Grazzi & Chiara Tomasi, 2011. "Intermediaries in International Trade: Direct versus indirect modes of export," NBER Working Papers 17711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Timothy J. Kehoe & Vanessa Strauss-Kahn & Kei-Mu Yi, 2004. "Why Is Manufacturing Trade Rising Even as Manufacturing Output is Falling?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 134-138, May.
  3. Bricongne, Jean-Charles & Fontagné, Lionel & Gaulier, Guillaume & Taglioni, Daria & Vicard, Vincent, 2010. "Firms and the global crisis: French exports in the turmoil," Working Paper Series 1245, European Central Bank.
  4. Buono, Ines & Fadinger, Harald & Berger, Stefan, 2008. "The Micro Dynamics of Exporting: Evidence from French Firms," MPRA Paper 12940, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Borchert, Ingo & Mattoo, Aaditya, 2009. "The crisis-resilience of services trade," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4917, The World Bank.
  6. Bas, Maria & Carluccio, Juan, 2010. "Wage Bargaining and the Boundaries of the Multinational Firm," CEPR Discussion Papers 7867, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert C. Feenstra & Barbara J. Spencer, 2005. "Contractual Versus Generic Outsourcing: The Role of Proximity," NBER Working Papers 11885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Abdul Abiad & Petia Topalova & Prachi Mishra, 2011. "How Does Trade Evolve in the Aftermath of Financial Crises?," IMF Working Papers 11/3, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Elena Biewen & Daniela Harsch & Julia Spies, 2012. "The Determinants of Service Imports: The Role of Cost Pressure and Financial Constraints," IAW Discussion Papers 90, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
  2. Nikolaos Antonakakis, 2012. "The Great Synchronization of International Trade Collapse," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp142, Vienna University of Economics, Department of Economics.
  3. Veronika Zavacka, 2012. "The bullwhip effect and the Great Trade Collapse," Working Papers 148, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
  4. Carlo Altomonte & Armando Rungi, 2013. "Business Groups as Hierarchies of Firms: Determinants of Vertical Integration and Performance," Working Papers 2013.33, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  5. Iossifov, Plamen, 2014. "Cross-border production chains and business cycle co-movement between Central and Eastern European countries and euro area member states," Working Paper Series 1628, European Central Bank.
  6. Neugebauer, Katja & Spies, Julia, 2012. "Borrowing Locally, Operating Globally? Financing and Trading Patterns of Firms during the 2007/2008 Economic Crisis," Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62066, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  7. Andrea Beltramello & Koen De Backer & Laurent Moussiegt, 2012. "The Export Performance of Countries within Global Value Chains (GVCs)," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2012/2, OECD Publishing.
  8. Katalin Bodnár & György Molnár & Gábor Pellényi & Lajos Szabó & Judit Várhegyi, 2013. "Dynamics of the trade balance and developments in exports and imports," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 8(Special), pages 37-45, October.
  9. Alyson C. Ma & Ari Van Assche, 2012. "Is East Asia’s Economic Fate Chained to the West?," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-11, CIRANO.
  10. Francesca Barbiero & Michael Blanga-Gubbay & Valeria Cipollone & Koen De Backer & Sébastien Miroudot & Alexandros Ragoussis & André Sapir & Reinhilde Veugelers & Erkki Vihriälä & Guntram B, . "Manufacturing Europeâ??s future," Blueprints, Bruegel, number 795, October.
  11. Francesca Bartoli & Giovanni Ferri & Pierluigi Murro & Zeno Rotondi, 2014. "Bank support and export: evidence from small Italian firms," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 42(2), pages 245-264, February.
  12. Amighini, Alessia & Cozza, Claudio & Rabellotti, Roberta & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2014. "An analysis of Chinese outward FDIs in Europe with firm-level data," CIRCLE Electronic Working Papers 2014/2, Lund University, CIRCLE - Center for Innovation, Research and Competences in the Learning Economy.
  13. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson & Kei-Mu Yi, 2012. "The Great Trade Collapse," NBER Working Papers 18632, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Martin Borowiecki & Bernhard Dachs & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Steffen Kinkel & Johannes Pöschl & Magdolna Sass & Thomas Christian Schmall & Robert Stehrer & Andrea Szalavetz, 2012. "Global Value Chains and the EU Industry," wiiw Research Reports 383, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
  15. Ferrantino, Michael J. & Taglioni, Daria, 2014. "Global Value Chains in the Current Trade Slowdown," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 138, pages 1-6, March.

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