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The effect of Chinese import competition on Mexican local labor markets

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  • Mendez, Oscar

Abstract

This paper contributes to the literature of the effect of globalization on labor markets in developing economies by analyzing the Mexican case. I exploit variation across Mexican regions in import exposure stemming from initial differences in industry specialization in order to estimate the effect Chinese competition had on local Mexican labor markets. Also, by taking advantage of the Mexican exports’ high dependence on the U.S. market, I estimate the effect that China-caused trade diversion had on Mexican labor markets. I find that the increase in competition decreased the employment share in manufacturing for the average Mexican local labor market. This effect was found to be larger for regions with high exposure to Chinese competition in the U.S. market, showing that there was a significant, negative indirect effect from China's trade growth. I also find that workers’ mobility across local labor markets increased due to this negative shock. Wages remained largely unaffected.

Suggested Citation

  • Mendez, Oscar, 2015. "The effect of Chinese import competition on Mexican local labor markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 364-380.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:34:y:2015:i:c:p:364-380
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2015.09.009
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    3. Akira Sasahara, 2022. "The Empirics of the China Trade Shock: A Summary of Estimation Methods and A Literature Review," Keio-IES Discussion Paper Series 2022-008, Institute for Economics Studies, Keio University.
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    5. Guido Matias Cortes & Diego M. Morris, 2019. "Are Routine Jobs Moving South? Evidence from Changes in the Occupational Structure of Employment in the U.S. and Mexico," Working Paper series 19-15, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    6. Chiquiar, Daniel & Covarrubias, Enrique & Salcedo, Alejandrina, 2016. "Labor market consequences of trade openness and competition in foreign markets," Conference papers 332760, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Juan Blyde & Matias Busso & Kyunglin Park & Dario Romero, 2023. "Short‐ and long‐run labor market adjustment to import competition," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1552-1569, September.
    8. Guido Matias Cortes1 & Diego M. Morris, 2020. "Are routine jobs moving south? Evidence from changes in the occupational structure of employment in the USA and Mexico," WIDER Working Paper Series wp2020-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Ghosh, Priyasmita & Medina-Cortina, Eduardo, 2023. "Long-lasting effects of a depressed labor market: Evidence from Mexico after the great recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    11. Timothy Halliday & Daniel Lederman & Raymond Robertson, 2018. "Tracking wage inequality trends with prices and different trade models: evidence from Mexico," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(1), pages 47-73, February.
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    16. Fina Sri Agustina, 2018. "Import competition and local labor markets: the case of Indonesia," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(2), pages 177-186, Oktober.
    17. Raymond Robertson & Timothy J. Halliday & Sindhu Vasireddy, 2020. "Labour market adjustment to third‐party competition: Evidence from Mexico," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1977-2006, July.
    18. Xuefeng Qian & Kalsoom Rafique & Yingna Wu, 2020. "Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(5), pages 1-25, September.
    19. Fernández Guerrico, Sofía, 2021. "The effects of trade-induced worker displacement on health and mortality in Mexico," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. HAYAKAWA Kazunobu & ITO Tadashi & URATA Shujiro, 2022. "Impacts of Increased Chinese Imports on Japan’s Labor Market: Firm and Regional Aspects," Discussion papers 22037, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    21. Sofia Torreggiani & Antonio Andreoni, 2019. "Dancing with dragons: Chinese import penetration and the performances of manufacturing firms in South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-63, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Sascha Sardadvar & Christian Reiner, 2021. "Austrian regions in the age of globalisation: Trade exposure, urban dynamics and structural change," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 603-643, June.
    23. Boker Poumie & Herve Kaffo Fotio & Guy P. Dazoue Dongue, 2022. "The employment effects of intra‐African exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 541-555, December.
    24. Sofía Fernández Guerrico, 2023. "Trade Shocks, Population Growth, and Migration," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/357236, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.

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