IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v64y2017icp141-152.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mexican real wages and the U.S. economy

Author

Listed:
  • Cabral, René
  • Mollick, André Varella

Abstract

This article examines real wage determinants from 1996 to 2014 across Mexican states. Real wages are determined in equilibrium by combining labor supply (years of education and population growth) and labor demand (mostly external factors) forces. Panel data models provide two main results. First, years of education and U.S. real GDP appear to be reliable predictors of wages in fixed effects models, with very marked changes after the U.S. 2008–2009 financial crisis and stronger effects on northern Mexican states. Second, dynamic panels confirm the role of foreign forces: positive from the U.S. economy and negative from the real exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Cabral, René & Mollick, André Varella, 2017. "Mexican real wages and the U.S. economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 141-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:141-152
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316303662
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.03.013?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eric Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2012. "Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 267-321, December.
    2. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Education, Inequality, And Development In A Dual Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 27-69, January.
    3. Eric A. Verhoogen, 2008. "Trade, Quality Upgrading, and Wage Inequality in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 489-530.
    4. Chiquiar, Daniel, 2008. "Globalization, regional wage differentials and the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 70-93, January.
    5. Mollick, André Varella, 2009. "Employment Responses of Skilled and Unskilled Workers at Mexican Maquiladoras: The Effects of External Factors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1285-1296, July.
    6. Frenkel, Roberto & Ros, Jaime, 2006. "Unemployment and the real exchange rate in Latin America," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 631-646, April.
    7. Rene Cabral & Andre Varella Mollick, 2011. "Intra-industry trade effects on Mexican manufacturing productivity before and after NAFTA," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 87-112.
    8. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Estimating the social return to higher education: evidence from longitudinal and repeated cross-sectional data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 175-212.
    9. Alfredo Cuevas & Miguel Messmacher & Alejandro Werner, 2005. "Foreign Direct Investment in Mexico since the Approval of," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 19(3), pages 473-488.
    10. Gallego, Francisco A. & Tessada, José A., 2012. "Sudden stops, financial frictions, and labor market flows: Evidence from Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 257-268.
    11. Mandelman, Federico S. & Zlate, Andrei, 2012. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 196-213.
    12. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2016. "Violence in Mexico and its effects on labor productivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 317-339, March.
    13. Eric A. Hanushek & Ludger Woessmann, 2008. "The Role of Cognitive Skills in Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(3), pages 607-668, September.
    14. Padrón, Benigno Rodríguez & Burger, Kees, 2015. "Diversification and Labor Market Effects of the Mexican Coffee Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-29.
    15. Aashish Mehta & Hector Villarreal, 2008. "Why do diplomas pay? An expanded Mincerian framework applied to Mexico," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3127-3144.
    16. Pratap, Sangeeta & Quintin, Erwan, 2011. "Financial crises and labor market turbulence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 601-615.
    17. Raymond Robertson, 2000. "Wage Shocks and North American Labor-Market Integration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 742-764, September.
    18. McKenzie, David J., 2003. "How do Households Cope with Aggregate Shocks? Evidence from the Mexican Peso Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1179-1199, July.
    19. Paul Maarek & Elsa Orgiazzi, 2013. "Currency Crises and the Labour Share," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(319), pages 566-588, July.
    20. Rasmus Heltberg & Naomi Hossain & Anna Reva & Carolyn Turk, 2013. "Coping and Resilience during the Food, Fuel, and Financial Crises," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 705-718, May.
    21. Sheida Teimouri, 2015. "Currency crises and dynamics of real wages," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(2), pages 377-403, May.
    22. Mishra, Prachi, 2007. "Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 180-199, January.
    23. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    24. ., 2011. "Kaleckian Macroeconomics: An Outline," Chapters, in: Unemployment, Recession and Effective Demand, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2009. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 235-249, July.
    26. ., 2011. "The Problem of Market Forms in Modern Macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Unemployment, Recession and Effective Demand, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    27. -, 2011. "Volatilidad macroeconómica y respuestas de políticas," Documentos de Proyectos 3881, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    28. Mehta, Aashish & Sun, Wei, 2013. "Does Industry Affiliation Influence Wages? Evidence from Indonesia and the Asian Financial Crisis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-61.
    29. Dufrénot, Gilles & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "The effects of the subprime crisis on the Latin American financial markets: An empirical assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2342-2357, September.
    30. Robertson, Raymond, 2003. "Exchange rates and relative wages: evidence from Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 25-48, March.
    31. André Varella Mollick & René Cabral, 2015. "Assessing Returns To Education And Labor Shocks In Mexican Regions After Nafta," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 190-206, January.
    32. Prachi Mishra & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Wages in an Integrated World," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 53-84, October.
    33. Attanasio, Orazio P. & Szekely, Miguel, 2004. "Wage shocks and consumption variability in Mexico during the 1990s," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 1-25, February.
    34. Christopher Colclough & Geeta Kingdon & Harry Patrinos, 2010. "The Changing Pattern of Wage Returns to Education and its Implications," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 28(6), pages 733-747, November.
    35. Araújo, Bruno César & Paz, Lourenço S., 2014. "The effects of exporting on wages: An evaluation using the 1999 Brazilian exchange rate devaluation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 1-16.
    36. Bellemare, Marc F. & Masaki, Takaaki & Pepinsky, Thomas B., 2015. "Lagged Explanatory Variables and the Estimation of Causal Effects," MPRA Paper 62350, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Feb 2015.
    37. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    38. van der Meulen Rodgers, Yana & Menon, Nidhiya, 2012. "Impact of the 2008–2009 Twin Economic Crises on the Philippine Labor Market," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2318-2328.
    39. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Contagion, decoupling and the spillover effects of the US financial crisis: Evidence from the BRIC markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 58-69.
    40. Hemche, Omar & Jawadi, Fredj & Maliki, Samir B. & Cheffou, Abdoulkarim Idi, 2016. "On the study of contagion in the context of the subprime crisis: A dynamic conditional correlation–multivariate GARCH approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 292-299.
    41. Thomas, Duncan & Beegle, Kathleen & Frankenberg, Elizabeth & Sikoki, Bondan & Strauss, John & Teruel, Graciela, 2004. "Education in a crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-85, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Castellanos-Sosa, Francisco A. & Cabral, René & Mollick, André Varella, 2022. "Energy reform and energy consumption convergence in Mexico: A spatial approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 336-350.
    2. Juan Gabriel Brida & W. Adrian Risso & Edgar J. Sánchez Carrera & Verónica Segarra, 2021. "Growth and inequality in the Mexican states: Regimes, thresholds, and traps," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(5), pages 1295-1322, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2019. "Foreign Direct Investment In Mexico, Crime, And Economic Forces," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 68-85, January.
    2. Roberto Coronado & Eduardo Saucedo, 2019. "Drug-related violence in Mexico and its effects on employment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 653-681, August.
    3. Mehta, Aashish & Mohr, Belinda Acuña, 2012. "Economic Liberalization and Rising College Premiums in Mexico: A Reinterpretation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(9), pages 1908-1920.
    4. Cabral Torres René & Mollick André V. & Saucedo Eduardo, 2018. "The Impact of Crime and Other Economic Forces on Mexico's Foreign Direct Investment Inflows," Working Papers 2018-24, Banco de México.
    5. René Cabral & André Varella Mollick & Eduardo Saucedo, 2016. "Violence in Mexico and its effects on labor productivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 56(2), pages 317-339, March.
    6. Łukasz Goczek & Ewa Witkowska & Bartosz Witkowski, 2021. "How Does Education Quality Affect Economic Growth?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-22, June.
    7. Jaume, David, 2021. "The labor market effects of an educational expansion," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Education, Inequality, And Development In A Dual Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 27-69, January.
    9. Trung V. Vu, 2022. "Does institutional quality foster economic complexity? The fundamental drivers of productive capabilities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1571-1604, September.
    10. Carlos A. Ibarra, 2016. "Investment, asset market, and the relative unit labor cost in Mexico," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 339-364, November.
    11. Peter H. Lindert, 2009. "Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance," NBER Working Papers 15491, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gabriela Cugat, 2019. "Emerging markets, household heterogeneity, and exchange rate policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 526, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. René Cabral & André Mollick, 2012. "Mexico’s regional output convergence after NAFTA: a dynamic panel data analysis," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 48(3), pages 877-895, June.
    14. Mollick, André Varella, 2009. "Employment Responses of Skilled and Unskilled Workers at Mexican Maquiladoras: The Effects of External Factors," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1285-1296, July.
    15. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Georgeta Vintilă & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2017. "Empirical Study towards the Drivers of Sustainable Economic Growth in EU-28 Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-22, December.
    16. Bijlsma Ineke & van den Brakel Jan & van der Velden Rolf & Allen Jim, 2020. "Estimating Literacy Levels at a Detailed Regional Level: an Application Using Dutch Data," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 36(2), pages 251-274, June.
    17. Castelló-Climent, Amparo & Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop, 2013. "Mass education or a minority well educated elite in the process of growth: The case of India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 303-320.
    18. Markus Brueckner & Ngo Van Long & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2020. "Non-Gravity Trade," Globalization Institute Working Papers 388, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    19. Oasis Kodila-Tedika & Simplice A. Asongu, 2015. "The Effect of Intelligence on Financial Development: A Cross-Country Comparison," Research Africa Network Working Papers 15/002, Research Africa Network (RAN).
    20. Potrafke, Niklas, 2013. "Globalization and labor market institutions: International empirical evidence," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 829-842.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mexico; Panel data; Real wages; United States;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:141-152. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.