IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v29y2012i6p2226-2236.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Gains and losses from potential bilateral US–China trade retaliation

Author

Listed:
  • Dong, Yan
  • Whalley, John

Abstract

Two closely related numerical general equilibrium models of world trade are used to analyze the potential consequences of US–China bilateral retaliation on trade flows and welfare. One is a conventional Armington trade model with five regions, the US, China, EU, Japan and the Rest of the World, and calibrated to a global 2009 micro consistent data set. The other is a modified version of this model with monetary non-neutrals and including China's trade surplus as an endogenous variable.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong, Yan & Whalley, John, 2012. "Gains and losses from potential bilateral US–China trade retaliation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2226-2236.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2226-2236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312002222
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.07.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harry G. Johnson, 1953. "Optimum Tariffs and Retaliation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 21(2), pages 142-153.
    2. Kuga, Kiyoshi, 1973. "Tariff retaliation and policy equilibrium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 351-366, November.
    3. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 614-621, January.
    4. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1983. "Optimal tariff calculations in alternative trade models and some possible implications for current world trading arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 323-348, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2020. "US–China rivalry: The macro policy choices," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2286-2314, September.
    2. Chunding Li, 2017. "How Would Bilateral Trade Retaliation Affect China?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 459-479, March.
    3. Nugroho, Anda & Widyastutik, & Irawan, Tony & Amaliah, Syarifah, 2021. "Does the US–China trade war increase poverty in a developing country? A dynamic general equilibrium analysis for Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-290.
    4. Septiyas Trisilia, Mustika & Widodo, Tri, 2019. "Impacts of China Coal Import Tariff against US on Global Economy and CO2 Emissions," MPRA Paper 91231, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Saiful Alim Rosyadi & Tri Widodo, 2018. "Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 125-145, April.
    6. Xia, Yan & Kong, Yishu & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2019. "Impacts of China-US trade conflicts on the energy sector," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.
    8. Alim Rosyadi, Saiful & Widodo, Tri, 2017. "Impacts of Donald Trump’s Tariff Increase against China on Global Economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model," MPRA Paper 79493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz & Bożena Pera, 2020. "International Trade Disputes over Renewable Energy—the Case of the Solar Photovoltaic Sector," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chunding Li & John Whalley & Chuantian He & Chuangwei Lin, 2021. "The 2008 Financial Crisis and the Lack of Retaliatory Trade Intervention," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 67(1), pages 78-105.
    2. He, Chuantian & Li, Chunding & Wang, Jing & Whalley, John, 2017. "The Armington assumption and the size of optimal tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 214-222.
    3. Bekkers, Eddy & Francois, Joseph & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2019. "Trade Wars: Nobody Expects the Spanish Inquisition," Papers 1234, World Trade Institute.
    4. Whalley John & Yu Jun & Zhang Shunming, 2012. "Trade Retaliation in a Monetary-Trade Model," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29, March.
    5. Yan Dong & John Whalley, 2011. "Optimal tariff calculations in tariff games with climate change considerations," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(15), pages 1431-1435.
    6. Faruqee, Hamid & Laxton, Douglas & Muir, Dirk & Pesenti, Paolo, 2008. "Would protectionism defuse global imbalances and spur economic activity? A scenario analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2651-2689, August.
    7. Tokarick, Stephen, 2006. "A simple rule for assessing tariff and tax incidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 116-120, October.
    8. Vanzetti, David & Kennedy, John O.S., 1989. "Optimal Retaliation in International Commodity Markets," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 57(01-02-03), pages 1-25, December.
    9. Ralph Ossa, 2011. "A "New Trade" Theory of GATT/WTO Negotiations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 122-152.
    10. Madanmohan Ghosh & Carlo Perroni & John Whalley, 1998. "The Value of MFN Treatment," NBER Working Papers 6461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Catherine L. Mann, 1987. "Protection and Retaliation: Changing the "Rules of the Game"," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 18(1), pages 311-335.
    12. Wu, Xianhua & Guo, Ji & Song, Shunfeng, 2023. "Influence of international trade disputes on the world industrial economic system based on inoperability input-output model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 787-803.
    13. Zissimos, Ben, 2007. "The GATT and gradualism," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 410-433, April.
    14. Ralph Ossa, 2016. "Quantitative Models of Commercial Policy," NBER Working Papers 22062, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Post, Gerald Vernon, 1983. "Optimal tariffs and retaliation with perfect foresight," ISU General Staff Papers 198301010800009429, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential economic effects of a global trade conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO global trade model," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2019-04, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    17. Francois, Joseph & Nelson, Douglas & Rojas-Romagosa, Hugo, 2019. "Trade Wars and Trade Disputes: The Role of Equity and Political Support," Conference papers 333046, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    18. Chunding Li, 2017. "How Would Bilateral Trade Retaliation Affect China?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(3), pages 459-479, March.
    19. Bekkers, Eddy & Teh, Robert, 2019. "Potential Economic Effects of a Global Trade Conflict: Projecting the medium-run effects with the WTO Global Trade Model," Conference papers 333120, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    20. Ghosh, Madanmohan, 2002. "The revival of regional trade arrangements: a GE evaluation of the impact on small countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 83-101, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade retaliation; Gains; Losses; US; China; General equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F00 - International Economics - - General - - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2226-2236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.