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Optimal Retaliation in International Commodity Markets

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  • Vanzetti, David
  • Kennedy, John O.S.

Abstract

Retaliation and other strategic trade policies can be readily observed in world commodity markets. Strategic behaviour can be analysed with game-theoretic models. Game theory is used to assess the effects of retaliation, given that traders assume that rivals will respond to any policy change. Estimates of expected responses are obtained for each trading bloc, and are included in regional welfare functions. These are used to derive a market-cleaning global equilibrium in which domestic prices, trade flow and welfare distribution in each region are determined. Market power among importers relative to exporters determines the effect of changes in expectations of retaliation on optimal trade policies and trade flows. The analysis is applied to a twenty-one region linear wheat trade model.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society in its journal Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 57 (1989)
Issue (Month): (December)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:ags:remaae:12443

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Postal: AARES Central Office Manager, Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU, Canberra ACT 0200
Phone: 0409 032 338
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Keywords: Marketing;

References

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  1. Otani, Yoshihiko, 1980. "Strategic Equilibrium of Tariffs and General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(3), pages 643-62, April.
  2. Morton I. Kamien & Nancy L. Schwartz, 1983. "Conjectural Variations," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 191-211, May.
  3. Thursby, Marie & Jensen, Richard, 1983. "A conjectural variation approach to strategic tariff equilibria," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 145-161, February.
  4. Tower, Edward, 1975. "The Optimum Quota and Retaliation," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 623-30, October.
  5. Batra, Raveendra N. & Seth, Avinash C., 1977. "Unemployment, tariffs and the theory of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 295-306, August.
  6. Bresnahan, Timothy F, 1981. "Duopoly Models with Consistent Conjectures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 934-45, December.
  7. Carl H. Nelson & Bruce A. McCarl, 1984. "Including Imperfect Competition in Spatial Equilibrium Models," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 32(1), pages 55-70, 03.
  8. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1974. "The non-equivalence of tariffs and quotas under retaliation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 295-298, August.
  9. Martin K. Perry, 1982. "Oligopoly and Consistent Conjectural Variations," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 13(1), pages 197-205, Spring.
  10. Gardner, Bruce L., 1988. "Export Policy, Deficiency Payments, and a Consumption Tax," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 1.
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