IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v86y2023icp787-803.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Influence of international trade disputes on the world industrial economic system based on inoperability input-output model

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Xianhua
  • Guo, Ji
  • Song, Shunfeng

Abstract

Since January 2018, the U.S. government has announced steep tariffs on a range of imports from China who then retaliated, thus triggering trade disputes. How much economic losses have the international trade disputes brought to the related parties? Which countries and industries are highly sensitive to the trade disputes? These are all important questions that have undoubtedly aroused mass concern of all circles. However, few scholars have carried out related empirical research on this issue, with little dynamic quantitative evaluation results on industry and country level obtained. Based on the static and dynamic inoperability input-output models and on the premise of several assumptions, the industrial economic system's indirect economic losses resulting from the trade disputes between China and the United States are evaluated according to the EU input-output table (WIOD2016) from January 1st to April 4th, 2018. The results show that the trade disputes severely affected the trading among China, the United States, and other countries (regions) in the world and brought about greater economic loss. Meanwhile, the countries and industries highly sensitive to the disputes are picked out. This paper provides an empirical reference for governments, industry management departments and related companies concerned with international trade disputes in assessing losses of similar events.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Xianhua & Guo, Ji & Song, Shunfeng, 2023. "Influence of international trade disputes on the world industrial economic system based on inoperability input-output model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 787-803.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:86:y:2023:i:c:p:787-803
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2023.03.033
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056023001041
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2023.03.033?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shin, Wonkyu & Ahn, Dukgeun, 2019. "Trade Gains from Legal Rulings in the WTO Dispute Settlement System," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 1-31, January.
    2. Jeesang Jung & Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2009. "International Trade Inoperability Input‐Output Model (IT‐IIM): Theory and Application," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 137-154, January.
    3. Kuga, Kiyoshi, 1973. "Tariff retaliation and policy equilibrium," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. Saiful Alim Rosyadi & Tri Widodo, 2018. "Impact of Donald Trump’s tariff increase against Chinese imports on global economy: Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 125-145, April.
    5. Marcel P. Timmer & Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Gaaitzen J. Vries, 2015. "An Illustrated User Guide to the World Input–Output Database: the Case of Global Automotive Production," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 575-605, August.
    6. McCarthy, Killian J., 2016. "On the influence of the European trade barrier on the chinese pv industry: Is the solution to the solar-dispute “successful”?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 154-157.
    7. Bouët, Antoine & Laborde Debucquet, David, 2017. "US trade wars with emerging countries in the 21st century: Make America and Its partners lose again," IFPRI discussion papers 1669, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Çakır, Mustafa Yavuz & Kabundi, Alain, 2013. "Trade shocks from BRIC to South Africa: A global VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 190-202.
    9. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1983. "Optimal tariff calculations in alternative trade models and some possible implications for current world trading arrangements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3-4), pages 323-348, November.
    10. Pablo D Fajgelbaum & Pinelopi K Goldberg & Patrick J Kennedy & Amit K Khandelwal, 2020. "The Return to Protectionism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 1-55.
    11. Joost R. Santos & Yacov Y. Haimes, 2004. "Modeling the Demand Reduction Input‐Output (I‐O) Inoperability Due to Terrorism of Interconnected Infrastructures," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 24(6), pages 1437-1451, December.
    12. Simon Appleton, 2002. "Trade shocks in developing countries. Volume 1: Africa; Volume 2: Asia and Latin America, edited by Paul Collier and Jan Gunning (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1999, Volume 1 pp. 491, £60 h|b; Volu," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(2), pages 298-299.
    13. Erik Dietzenbacher & Bart Los & Robert Stehrer & Marcel Timmer & Gaaitzen de Vries, 2013. "The Construction Of World Input-Output Tables In The Wiod Project," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 71-98, March.
    14. Chisik, Richard, 2012. "Trade disputes, quality choice, and economic integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 47-61.
    15. Naudé, Wim & Rossouw, Riaan, 2008. "South African quotas on textile imports from China: A policy error?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 737-750.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gu, Rongrong & Guo, Ji & Huang, Yuxiang & Wu, Xianhua, 2023. "Impact of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism on economic growth and resources supply in the BASIC countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Guo, Ji & Xu, Yuanjing & Qu, Yao & Wang, Yiting & Wu, Xianhua, 2023. "Exploring factors affecting household energy consumption in the internet era: Empirical evidence from Chinese households," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    3. Ji, Zhiyong & Wu, Xianhua & Chen, Xueli & Zhou, Wenzhuo & Song, Malin, 2023. "Finding green performance targets globally closest to management goals for ports experiencing similar circumstances," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hübler, Michael & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "Trade-induced productivity gains reduce incentives to impose strategic tariffs," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 420-431.
    2. Yuko Imura, 2023. "Reassessing Trade Barriers with Global Production Networks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 77-116, December.
    3. Daniel Croner and Ivan Frankovic, 2018. "A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Global and National Energy Intensity Trends," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. Inácio Araúgo & Randall Jackson & Amir B. Ferreira Neto & Fernando Perobelli, 2018. "Environmental Costs of European Union Membership: A Structural Decomposition Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2018-04, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    5. Nieto, Jaime & Carpintero, Óscar & Miguel, Luis J. & de Blas, Ignacio, 2020. "Macroeconomic modelling under energy constraints: Global low carbon transition scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    6. Bolatto, Stefano & Moramarco, Graziano, 2023. "Gains from trade and their quantification: Does sectoral disaggregation matter?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 44-68.
    7. Kaltenegger, Oliver & Löschel, Andreas & Pothen, Frank, 2017. "The effect of globalisation on energy footprints: Disentangling the links of global value chains," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 148-168.
    8. Swati Dhingra & Rebecca Freeman & Hanwei Huang, 2023. "The Impact of Non‐tariff Barriers on Trade and Welfare," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(357), pages 140-177, January.
    9. Oliver Schenker & Simon Koesler & Andreas Löschel, 2018. "On the effects of unilateral environmental policy on offshoring in multi‐stage production processes," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(4), pages 1221-1256, November.
    10. Holger Breinlich & Elsa Leromain & Dennis Novy & Thomas Sampson, 2021. "Import liberalization as export destruction? Evidence from the United States," CEP Discussion Papers dp1779, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Thomas Grebel, 2019. "What a difference carbon leakage correction makes!," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 939-971, July.
    12. Chiara Bentivogli & Tommaso Ferraresi & Paola Monti & Renato Paniccià & Stefano Rosignoli, 2019. "Italian Regions in Global Value Chains: An Input-Output Approach," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 55-94.
    13. Frohm, Erik & Gunnella, Vanessa, 2017. "Sectoral interlinkages in global value chains: spillovers and network effects," Working Paper Series 2064, European Central Bank.
    14. Nawab, Asim & Liu, Gengyuan & Meng, Fanxin & Hao, Yan & Zhang, Yan, 2019. "Urban energy-water nexus: Spatial and inter-sectoral analysis in a multi-scale economy," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 403(C), pages 44-56.
    15. Koppány, Krisztián, 2020. "A kínai koronavírus és a magyar gazdaság kitettsége. Mit mutatnak a világ input-output táblák? [The Chinese coronavirus outbreak and the exposure of the Hungarian economy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 433-455.
    16. Cappariello, Rita & Franco-Bedoya, Sebastian & Gunnella, Vanessa & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 2020. "Rising protectionism and global value chains: quantifying the general equilibrium effects," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 108423, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Torre Cepeda Leonardo E. & Chapa Cantú Joana C. & González González Eva Edith, 2020. "Economic Integration Mexico-United States and Regional Performance in Mexico," Working Papers 2020-06, Banco de México.
    18. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.
    19. Giammetti, Raffaele, 2019. "Tariffs, Domestic Import Substitution and Trade Diversion in Input-Output Production Networks: how to deal with Brexit," MPRA Paper 93229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Luis Daniel Torres-Gonzalez & Jacobo Ferrer-Hernandez & Adrian Martınez, 2022. "On the Long-Run Neutrality of Profits-Wages Ratios in the Determination of International Relative Prices Under Absolute Advantages," Working Papers 2208, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade disputes; Industrial economic system; Inoperability input-output model; Indirect economic loss evaluation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C67 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Input-Output Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:86:y:2023:i:c:p:787-803. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.