IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v30y2008i5p737-750.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

South African quotas on textile imports from China: A policy error?

Author

Listed:
  • Naudé, Wim
  • Rossouw, Riaan

Abstract

In August 2006 the South African government announced quotas on the imports of clothing and textile products from China. Three questions arise. What are these expected benefits? What will be the most likely impact of the import quotas on the South African economy? And what are the policy implications? In this paper we answer these questions by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. We find that, contrary to the motivations apparently underlying the quota implementation, the macro-economic, sector and household effects are negative and result in greater inequality between poorer and richer households. We refer to modeling results elsewhere in the literature which report results consistent to ours. The policy implications are that the imposition of these quotas could come to be seen as a policy mistake, and that South Africa may benefit more from considering a free trade agreement with China.

Suggested Citation

  • Naudé, Wim & Rossouw, Riaan, 2008. "South African quotas on textile imports from China: A policy error?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 737-750.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:737-750
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161-8938(08)00007-0
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Guyomard, Herve & Requillart, Vincent, 2001. "On inefficiencies in the European sugar regime," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 659-667, August.
    2. Costa, Antonio Maria, 1985. "Multilateralism under threat: Causes, impact, and the policy debate on government intervention in trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 181-217.
    3. Tcha, MoonJoong & Kuriyama, Takashi, 2003. "Protection policy under economies of scale -- the welfare effects of tariffs on the Australian automotive industry," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 655-672, September.
    4. W. Jill Harrison & Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson & Glyn Wittwer, 2004. "A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 325-341, June.
    5. N/A, 1985. "General Policy," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 41(1), pages 74-79, January.
    6. Barro, Robert, 2004. "Current protectionism and the benefits of free trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 507-512, June.
    7. Adams, Philip D., 2005. "Interpretation of results from CGE models such as GTAP," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 941-959, November.
    8. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    9. Arunanondchai, Jutamas May, 2003. "Applied general equilibrium analysis of trade liberalisation on land-based sectors in Malaysia and Indonesia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 947-961, December.
    10. Stifel, David C. & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "A dual-dual CGE model of an archetype African economy: trade reform, migration and poverty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 207-235, April.
    11. N/A, 1985. "General Policy," India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs, , vol. 41(1), pages 112-117, January.
    12. Jan van Heerden & Reyer Gerlagh & James Blignaut & Mark Horridge & Sebastiaan Hess & Ramos Mabugu & Margaret Mabugu, 2006. "Searching for Triple Dividends in South Africa: Fighting CO2 Pollution and Poverty while Promoting Growth," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 113-142.
    13. Harry G. Broadman, 2007. "Africa's Silk Road : China and India's New Economic Frontier," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7186, December.
    14. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Cockburn, John, 2007. "Trade reform and poverty--Lessons from the Philippines: A CGE-microsimulation analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 141-163.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xianhua Wu & Yingying Wang & Lingjuan Yang & Shunfeng Song & Guo Wei & Ji Guo, 2016. "Impact of political dispute on international trade based on an international trade Inoperability Input-Output Model: A case study of the 2012 Diaoyu Islands Dispute," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 47-70, February.
    2. Lila J. Truett & Dale B. Truett, 2010. "New Challenges For The South African Textile And Apparel Industries In The Global Economy," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 73-91, December.
    3. Wim Naudé & Riaan Rossouw, 2011. "Export diversification and economic performance: evidence from Brazil, China, India and South Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 99-134, April.
    4. Wu, Xianhua & Guo, Ji & Song, Shunfeng, 2023. "Influence of international trade disputes on the world industrial economic system based on inoperability input-output model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 787-803.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Peter B. Dixon, 2006. "Evidence-based Trade Policy Decision Making in Australia and the Development of Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-163, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Ahmed, Vaqar & O' Donoghue, Cathal, 2007. "CGE-Microsimulation Modelling: A Survey," MPRA Paper 9307, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mark Partridge & Dan Rickman, 2010. "Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Modelling for Regional Economic Development Analysis," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(10), pages 1311-1328.
    4. Arntz, Melanie & Boeters, Stefan & Gürtzgen, Nicole & Schubert, Stefanie, 2008. "Analysing welfare reform in a microsimulation-AGE model: The value of disaggregation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 422-439, May.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Jeffrey J. Reimer, 2006. "Predicting the Poverty Impacts of Trade Reform," QA - Rivista dell'Associazione Rossi-Doria, Associazione Rossi Doria, issue 2, May.
    6. Stefan Boeters & Michael Feil, 2009. "Heterogeneous Labour Markets in a Microsimulation–AGE Model: Application to Welfare Reform in Germany," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 305-335, May.
    7. Iain Fraser & Robert Waschik, 2010. "The Double Dividend Hypothesis in a CGE Model: Specific Factors and Variable Labour Supply," Working Papers 2010.02, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    8. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
    9. Ferran Sancho, 2003. "Energy Tax Simulation in a Flexible CGE Model of Catalonia," Working Papers 95, Barcelona School of Economics.
    10. Buffie, Edward F. & Atolia, Manoj, 2012. "Trade, growth, and poverty in Zambia: Insights from a dynamic GE model," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 211-229.
    11. Pizer, William A. & Burtraw, Dallas & Harrington, Winston & Newell, Richard G. & Sanchirico, James N., 2005. "Modeling Economywide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Models," Discussion Papers 10502, Resources for the Future.
    12. Touhami Abdelkhalek & Jean-Marie Dufour, 1998. "Statistical Inference For Computable General Equilibrium Models, With Application To A Model Of The Moroccan Economy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 520-534, November.
    13. AFM Mohiuddin & Ryuta Ray Kato, 2009. "Trade Liberalization of the Fishery Industry of Japan," Working Papers EMS_2009_10, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    14. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1995. "Capital Utilization and Returns to Scale," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1995, Volume 10, pages 67-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Andreas Peichl, 2009. "The Benefits and Problems of Linking Micro and Macro Models — Evidence from a Flat Tax Analysis," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 301-329, November.
    16. Zabinski, Daniel & Selden, Thomas M. & Moeller, John F. & Banthin, Jessica S., 1999. "Medical savings accounts: microsimulation results from a model with adverse selection," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 195-218, April.
    17. Phouphet Kyophilavong & Xaignasack Lassachack & Thanouxay Volavong, 2016. "Do cash transfers help the poor during trade liberalization? Evidence from Laos," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 355-371, December.
    18. Engel, Eduardo M. R. A. & Galetovic, Alexander & Raddatz, Claudio E., 1999. "Taxes and income distribution in Chile: some unpleasant redistributive arithmetic," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 155-192, June.
    19. Robinson, Sherman & Yunez-Naude, Antonio & Hinojosa-Ojeda, Raul & Lewis, Jeffrey D. & Devarajan, Shantayanan, 1999. "From stylized to applied models:: Building multisector CGE models for policy analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-38.
    20. Chitiga, Margaret & Kandiero, Tonia & Mabugu, Ramos, 2005. "A Computable General Equilibrium Micro-Simulation Analysis of the Impact of Trade Policies on Poverty in Zimbabwe," Conference papers 331388, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:737-750. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.