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Uncertainty in the public debt market and stochastic long-run growth

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  • Tsintzos, Panagiotis
  • Dergiades, Theologos

Abstract

In a continuous time model, a representative household has to allocate its investment and consumption in an optimal manner under conditions of uncertainty. In the present study it is hypothesized that there are two types of assets: a risk-free and a risky asset. The risk-free asset is assumed to be the physical capital, while at the same time uncertainty is allowed to result from the exogenous random variations in the public debt market, rendering in this way government bonds to act as the risky asset. In the endogenous growth framework with productive public investment, the expected long-run growth rate, the dynamic path of consumption as well as the optimal allocation of investment between a risky and a riskless asset, are analytically derived. This kind of treatment allows us to create a locus for the long-run growth over the various levels of uncertainty. The outcome of the analysis is that a rise in uncertainty impacts negatively upon the long-run growth rate. In order to empirically assess the relationship between growth and uncertainty, we lay our emphasis on the US economy for the period 1957:1 to 2008:4. Within the framework of a bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1)-M model a significant negative relationship between uncertainty and economic growth has been established.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1-2 (January)
Pages: 67-73

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:67-73

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Related research

Keywords: Public debt management Stochastic optimal control Endogenous growth BEKK-GARCH-M model;

References

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  1. Missale, Alessandro, 1999. "Public Debt Management," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290858.
  2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  3. Alfred Greiner, 2008. "Does it Pay to Have a Balanced Government Budget?," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 164(3), pages 460-476, September.
  4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  6. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  7. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
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