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Systemic risk, financial contagion and financial fragility

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  • Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín
  • Pérez, Omar Pérez
  • Embriz, Fernando Avila
  • Dey, Fabrizio López Gallo
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    Abstract

    Although it is hard to arrive at a widely accepted definition for Systemic Risk; it is generally acknowledged that it is the risk of the occurrence of an event that threatens the well functioning of the system of interest (financial, payments, banking, etc.) sometimes to the point of making its operation impossible. We model systemic risk with two main components: a random shock that weakens one or more financial institutions and a transmission mechanism which transmits and possibly exacerbates such negative effects to the rest of the system. Our model could be conceptually represented by a network already described in previous works. In this work we show how is possible to estimate the distribution of losses for the banking system with our model. Additionally, we show how it is possible to separate the distribution of losses into two components: the losses incurred by the initial shock and the losses resulting from the contagion process. Finally, once the distribution is estimated, we can derive standard risk measures for the system as a whole. Another important contribution of this work is that we can follow the evolution of certain risk measures like the expected loss or the CVaR in order to evaluate if the system is becoming more or less risky, in fact, more or less fragile. Additionally, we can decompose the distribution of losses of the whole banking system into the systemic and the contagion elements and we can determine if the system is more prone to experience contagious difficulties during a certain period of time.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

    Volume (Year): 34 (2010)
    Issue (Month): 11 (November)
    Pages: 2358-2374

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:34:y:2010:i:11:p:2358-2374

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc

    Related research

    Keywords: Systemic risk Monte Carlo simulation Financial contagion;

    References

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    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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    1. Dimitrios P Tsomocos, 2003. "Equilibrium analysis, banking, contagion and financial fragility," Bank of England working papers 175, Bank of England.
    2. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February.
    3. Lehar, Alfred, 2005. "Measuring systemic risk: A risk management approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2577-2603, October.
    4. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "Network topology of the interbank market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(6), pages 677-684.
    5. Giulia Iori & Saqib Jafarey, 2001. "Criticality in a model of banking crises," Papers cond-mat/0104080, arXiv.org.
    6. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Brown, Gregory W. & Hund, John E., 2005. "Estimating Systemic Risk in the International Financial System," MPRA Paper 6658, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. de Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic Risk: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2634, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Michael Boss & Gerald Krenn & Claus Puhr & Martin Summer, 2006. "Systemic Risk Monitor: A Model for Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing of Banking Systems," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 11.
    9. Christian Upper, 2007. "Using counterfactual simulations to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," BIS Working Papers 234, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Michael Boss & Helmut Elsinger & Martin Summer & Stefan Thurner, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Network Structure of the Austrian Interbank Market," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 7.
    11. Sanjeev Goyal, 2007. "Introduction to Connections: An Introduction to the Economics of Networks
      [Connections: An Introduction to the Economics of Networks]
      ," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:
    1. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2013. "Transient fluctuation of the prosperity of firms in a network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3351-3359.
    2. Henriet, Fanny & Hallegatte, Stéphane & Tabourier, Lionel, 2012. "Firm-network characteristics and economic robustness to natural disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 150-167.
    3. Martinez-Jaramillo, Serafin & Alexandrova-Kabadjova, Biliana & Bravo-Benitez, Bernardo & Solórzano-Margain, Juan Pablo, 2014. "An empirical study of the Mexican banking system’s network and its implications for systemic risk," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 242-265.
    4. Suh, Sangwon, 2012. "Measuring systemic risk: A factor-augmented correlated default approach," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 341-358.
    5. Germán López-Espinosa & Antonio Moreno & Antonio Rubia & Laura Valderrama, 2012. "Short-term Wholesale Funding and Systemic Risk: A Global CoVaR Approach," Faculty Working Papers 02/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    6. Ladley, Daniel, 2013. "Contagion and risk-sharing on the inter-bank market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 1384-1400.
    7. Mendes-Da-Silva, Wesley, 2011. "Small worlds and board interlocking in Brazil: a longitudinal study of corporate networks, 1997-2007," MPRA Paper 34152, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Minoiu, Camelia & Reyes, Javier A., 2013. "A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2010," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 168-184.

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