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Investor expectations, earnings management, and asset prices

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  • Du, Kai

Abstract

This paper examines the implications of investor expectations for the joint determination of earnings manipulation and asset prices. Three alternative models of investor expectations are studied: constant-gain learning, regime-shifting beliefs, and accounting-information-system (AIS) beliefs. I use the simulated method of moments (SMM) to estimate the most plausible model that matches the actual data. AIS beliefs and regime-shifting beliefs are shown to best explain the empirical moments of 63% and 32% of S&P 500 firms, respectively. Regression analysis suggests that the three models offer different predictions on the existence and magnitude of several empirical regularities including a positive earnings response coefficient, the discretionary accruals anomaly, and return momentum.

Suggested Citation

  • Du, Kai, 2019. "Investor expectations, earnings management, and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 134-157.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:105:y:2019:i:c:p:134-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.06.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Du, Kai & Huddart, Steven & Xue, Lingzhou & Zhang, Yifan, 2020. "Using a hidden Markov model to measure earnings quality," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2).
    2. Kai Du & Steven Huddart, 2020. "Economic persistence, earnings informativeness, and stock return regularities," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 1263-1300, December.
    3. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Hu, Yi & Jin, Shuchang & Ni, Juan & Peng, Kai & Zhang, Lei, 2023. "Strategic or substantive green innovation: How do non-green firms respond to green credit policy?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Adnan Shoaib & Muhammad A. Siddiqui, 2022. "Earning information content changes based on accrual measures and quality measures: Evidences from member countries of Asia Pacific trade agreement," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 1526-1546, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings management; Accruals; Investor expectations; Behavioral bias; Empirical regularities; Simulated method of moments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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