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Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?

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  • Evan W. Anderson
  • Eric Ghysels
  • Jennifer L. Juergens
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    Abstract

    We study how heterogeneous beliefs affect returns and examine whether they are a priced factor in traditional asset pricing models. To accomplish this task, we suggest new empirical measures based on the disagreement among analysts about expected earnings (short-term and long-term) and show they are good proxies. We first establish that the heterogeneity of beliefs matters for asset pricing and then turn our attention to estimating a structural model in which we use the forecasts of financial analysts to proxy for agents' beliefs. Finally, we investigate whether the amount of heterogeneity in analysts' forecasts can help explain asset pricing puzzles. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Society for Financial Studies in its journal The Review of Financial Studies.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 875-924

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    Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:18:y:2005:i:3:p:875-924

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    Cited by:
    1. Paul Söderlind, 2008. "Why Disagreement May Not Matter (much) for Asset Prices," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-11, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    2. Paul Söderlind, 2008. "Inflation Risk Premia and Survey Evidence on Macroeconomic Uncertainty," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2008 2008-12, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    3. Dunne, Peter & Hau, Harald & Moore, Michael, 2010. "International order flows: Explaining equity and exchange rate returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 358-386, March.
    4. Jongen, R. & Muller, A. & Verschoor, W.F.C., 2012. "Using survey data to resolve the exchange risk exposure puzzle: Evidence from U.S. multinational firms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 148-169.
    5. Riccardo Colacito & Mariano M. Croce, 2012. "International Robust Disagreement," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 152-55, May.
    6. Fousseni Chabi-Yo & Eric Ghysels & Eric Renault, 2008. "On Portfolio Separation Theorems with Heterogeneous Beliefs and Attitudes towards Risk," Working Papers 08-16, Bank of Canada.
    7. Hommes, C.H., 2010. "The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab," CeNDEF Working Papers 10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    8. Naes, Randi & Skjeltorp, Johannes A., 2006. "Order book characteristics and the volume-volatility relation: Empirical evidence from a limit order market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 408-432, November.
    9. Rieger, Jörg, 2014. "Financial Integration with Heterogeneous Beliefs," Working Papers 0568, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    10. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
    11. De Santis, Roberto A. & Ehling, Paul, 2007. "Do international portfolio investors follow firms’ foreign investment decisions?," Working Paper Series 0815, European Central Bank.
    12. Chi, Jianxin (Daniel) & Gupta, Manu, 2009. "Overvaluation and earnings management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1652-1663, September.
    13. Kang, Hyung Cheol & Lee, Dong Wook & Park, Kyung Suh, 2010. "Does the difference in valuation between domestic and foreign investors help explain their distinct holdings of domestic stocks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(12), pages 2886-2896, December.
    14. Shin S. Ikeda & Yan Zhang, 2012. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, a Short-Sale Restriction, and the Cross Section of Stock Returns: An Evidence from China," GRIPS Discussion Papers 12-12, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    15. Anderson, Evan W. & Ghysels, Eric & Juergens, Jennifer L., 2009. "The impact of risk and uncertainty on expected returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 233-263, November.
    16. Gupta-Mukherjee, Swasti, 2013. "When active fund managers deviate from their peers: Implications for fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1286-1305.

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