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On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model

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Author Info
Chan, Louis K C
Karceski, Jason
Lakonishok, Josef
Abstract

We evaluate the performance of models for the covariance structure of stock returns, focusing on their use for optimal portfolio selection. We compare the models' forecasts of future covariances and the optimized portfolios' out-of-sample performance. A few factors capture the general covariance structure. Portfolio optimization helps for risk control, and a three-factor model is adequate for selecting the minimum-variance portfolio. Under a tracking error volatility criterion, which is widely used in practice, larger differences emerge across the models. In general more factors are necessary when the objective is to minimize tracking error volatility. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies in its journal Review of Financial Studies.

Volume (Year): 12 (1999)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 937-74
Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:12:y:1999:i:5:p:937-74

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  1. Jose A. Lopez & Christian A. Walter, 2000. "Evaluating covariance matrix forecasts in a value-at-risk framework," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 2000-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  2. Gordon J. Alexander & Alexandre M. Baptista & Shu Yan, 2009. "Reducing estimation risk in optimal portfolio selection when short sales are allowed," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(5), pages 281-305. [Downloadable!]
  3. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5148, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Michiel de Pooter & Martin Martens & Dick van Dijk, 2005. "Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data - But Which Frequency to Use?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-089/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 03 Jan 2006. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alex & Teplá, Lucie, 2005. "Risk Management with Benchmarking," CEPR Discussion Papers 5187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Jennifer Juergens & Evan Anderson & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 477, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2000. "Rolling-Sample Volatility Estimators: Some New Theoretical, Simulation and Empirical Results," CIRANO Working Papers 2000s-19, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2009. "A Framework for CAPM with Heterogenous Beliefs," Research Paper Series 254, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  9. Qianqiu Liu, 2009. "On portfolio optimization: How and when do we benefit from high-frequency data?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 560-582. [Downloadable!]
  10. Garlappi, Lorenzo & Uppal, Raman & Wang, Tan, 2005. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5041, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Arco van Oord & Martin Martens & Herman K. van Dijk, 2009. "Robust Optimization of the Equity Momentum Strategy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-011/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Asgharian, Hossein, 2004. "A Comparative Analysis of Ability of Mimicking Portfolios in Representing the Background Factors," Working Papers 2004:10, Lund University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  13. Nadima El-Hassan & Paul Kofman, 2003. "Tracking Error and Active Portfolio Management," Research Paper Series 98, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney. [Downloadable!]
  14. Gregory H. Bauer & Keith Vorkink, 2007. "Multivariate Realized Stock Market Volatility
    ," Working Papers 07-20, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  15. Raman Uppal & Lorenzo Garlappi & Tan Wang, 2004. "Portfolio Selection with Parameter and Model Uncertainty: A Multi-Prior Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 54, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  16. Imre Kondor & Szilard Pafka & Gabor Nagy, 2006. "Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection under various risk measures," Quantitative Finance Papers physics/0611027, arXiv.org. [Downloadable!]
  17. Josef Lakonishok & Louis Chan & Stephen G. Dimmock, 2006. "Benchmarking Money Manager Performance: Issues and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12461, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. C.M. Hafner & P.H. Franses, 2003. "A generalized dynamic conditional correlation model for many asset returns," Econometric Institute Report 323, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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