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Simulating incomes of radical organic farms with MERLIN: A grounded modeling approach for French microfarms

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  • Morel, Kevin
  • San Cristobal, Magali
  • Léger, François Gilbert

Abstract

Microfarms are commercial soil-based market gardens with <1.5ha of organic vegetables per farmer seeking to make a living on that small acreage by combing high land-use intensity, low input and few mechanized practices with direct sells. Insights in their profitability are missing in literature. Our research objective was to build a simulation model of micro-farms' income and agricultural area based on farmers' expertise. An interactive development based on grounded modelling was implemented. This implied an inductive qualitative analysis and farmers' participation to collect data and to build and validate the model. With data collected on 20 micro-farms', a stochastic simulation model (MERLIN) was built, combining (i) two mixed models to predict yields and workload for 50 crops, and (ii) a crop-planning model. MERLIN generates cropping plans that match the complex and temporal commercial requirements for direct selling of vegetable boxes through community-supported agricultural schemes. The model was validated with various strategic choices, climate assumptions and annual workload. Our model was judged relevant and legitimate by agricultural practitioners because it was not prescriptive and corresponds to strategic preferences of organic farmers. Grounded modelling is promising to create generic knowledge adapted to radical organic farming systems, but some epistemological implications require further investigation, e.g. by taking benefit from the transdisciplinary framework developed in agroecological studies.

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  • Morel, Kevin & San Cristobal, Magali & Léger, François Gilbert, 2018. "Simulating incomes of radical organic farms with MERLIN: A grounded modeling approach for French microfarms," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 89-101.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:161:y:2018:i:c:p:89-101
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2017.08.006
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    1. Benjamin Ruch & Margita Hefner & André Sradnick, 2023. "Excessive Nitrate Limits the Sustainability of Deep Compost Mulch in Organic Market Gardening," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-13, May.
    2. Morel, Kevin & Cartau, Karine, 2023. "Adaptation of organic vegetable farmers to climate change: An exploratory study in the Paris region," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    3. Guzmán, Gloria Isabel & Fernández, David Soto & Aguilera, Eduardo & Infante-Amate, Juan & de Molina, Manuel González, 2022. "The close relationship between biophysical degradation, ecosystem services and family farms decline in Spanish agriculture (1992–2017)," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Pépin, Antonin & Morel, Kevin & van der Werf, Hayo M.G., 2021. "Conventionalised vs. agroecological practices on organic vegetable farms: Investigating the influence of farm structure in a bifurcation perspective," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

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