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Assessing the Forecasting Performance of a Generic Bio-Economic Farm Model Calibrated With Two Different PMP Variants

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Author Info

  • Argyris Kanellopoulos
  • Paul Berentsen
  • Thomas Heckelei
  • Martin van Ittersum
  • Alfons Oude Lansink

Abstract

"Using linear programming in bio-economic farm modelling often results in overspecialised model solutions. The positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach guarantees exact calibration to base year data but the forecasting capacity of the model is affected by necessary but arbitrary assumptions imposed during calibration. In this article, a new PMP variant is presented which is based on less arbitrary assumptions that, from a theoretical point of view, are closer to the actual decision making of the farmer. The PMP variant is evaluated according to the predictions of the bio-economic farm model, developed within the framework for integrated assessment of agricultural systems in Europe (SEAMLESS). The forecasting capacity of the model calibrated with the standard PMP approach and the alternative PMP variant, respectively, is tested in ex-post experiments for the arable farm types of Flevoland (the Netherlands) and Midi-Pyrenees (France). The results of the ex-post experiments, in which we try to simulate farm responses in 2003 using a model calibrated to 1999 data, show that the alternative PMP variant improves the forecasting capacity of the model in all tested cases." Copyright (c) 2010 The Authors. Journal compilation (c) 2010 The Agricultural Economics Society.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Volume (Year): 61 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 274-294

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Handle: RePEc:bla:jageco:v:61:y:2010:i:2:p:274-294

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0021-857X

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Britz, Wolfgang & van Ittersum, Martin K. & Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M. & Heckelei, Thomas, 2012. "Tools for Integrated Assessment in Agriculture. State of the Art and Challenges," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 2, August.
  2. Louhichi, Kamel & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco Fonseca, Maria, 2009. "A generic template for FSSIM," Reports 57463, SEAMLESS: System for Environmental and Agricultural Modelling, Linking European Science and Society.
  3. Arfini, Filippo & Donati, Michele & Marongiu, Sonia & Cesaro, Luca, 2012. "Farm production costs estimation trough PMP Models: an application in three Italian Regions," Congress Papers 124117, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
  4. Aurbacher, Joachim & Parker, Phillip S. & Calberto Sánchez, Germán A. & Steinbach, Jennifer & Reinmuth, Evelyn & Ingwersen, Joachim & Dabbert, Stephan, 2013. "Influence of climate change on short term management of field crops – A modelling approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 44-57.
  5. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Izaurralde, R. César & Manowitz, David H. & Zhang, Xuesong, 2013. "Maintaining environmental quality while expanding biomass production: Sub-regional U.S. policy simulations," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 518-531.
  6. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Izaurralde, R. Cesar & Manowitz, David H. & Zhang, Xuesong, 2010. "Biomass Supply from Alternative Cellulosic Crops and Crop Residues: A Preliminary Spatial Bioeconomic Modeling Approach," Staff Papers 98277, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
  7. Louhichi, Kamel & Kanellopoulos, Argyris & Janssen, Sander & Flichman, Guillermo & Blanco, Maria & Hengsdijk, Huib & Heckelei, Thomas & Berentsen, Paul & Lansink, Alfons Oude & Ittersum, Martin Van, 2010. "FSSIM, a bio-economic farm model for simulating the response of EU farming systems to agricultural and environmental policies," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 103(8), pages 585-597, October.
  8. Heckelei, Thomas & Britz, Wolfgang & Zhang, Yinan, 2012. "Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 1, April.
  9. Garnache, Cloe & Merel, Pierre R., 2011. "Calibrating a regional PMP model of agricultural supply under multiple constraints: a set of matryoshka doll conditions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114630, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  10. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Izaurralde, R. Cesar & Manowitz, David H. & Zhang, Xuesong, 2012. "Maintaining Environmental Quality while Expanding Energy Biomass Production: Policy Simulations from Michigan, USA," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 126749, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  11. Gunter, Allison & Goemans, Chris & Pritchett, James G. & Thilmany, Dawn D., 2012. "Linking an Equilibrium Displacement Mathematical Programming Model and an Input-Output Model to Estimate the Impacts of Drought: An Application to Southeast Colorado," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124930, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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