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Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework

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  • El Chami, D.
  • Daccache, A.

Abstract

The proposed study draws a novel framework to assess the sustainability of winter wheat under climate change conditions and irrigation as an adaption measure to reduce yield variability. The methodology combines outputs from a general circulation model (GCM), the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) crop growth model (AquaCrop), a life cycle assessment (LCA) model and economic modelling. Long-term observed climate data (1970–1991) collected in Cambridge (Cambridgeshire, UK) were used to downscale the projected climate data from the GCM for 2050. The structural characteristics of the case study are representative of a typical farm in this UK region. A six-year average wheat price (2007–2012) was considered and the irrigation costs for the economic model were calculated assuming the market prices in 2014. Sensitivity analysis assessed in the longer term included the expected variations due to the increase in world wheat prices and the energy costs.

Suggested Citation

  • El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:140:y:2015:i:c:p:19-25
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.08.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel El Chami, 2020. "Towards Sustainable Organic Farming Systems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-5, November.
    2. Maria G. Lampridi & Claus G. Sørensen & Dionysis Bochtis, 2019. "Agricultural Sustainability: A Review of Concepts and Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-27, September.
    3. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Bannayan, Mohammad & Hoogenboom, Gerrit, 2016. "Towards modeling soil texture-specific sensitivity of wheat yield and water balance to climatic changes," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 248-263.
    4. Sajjad Ali & Li Gucheng & Liu Ying & Muhammad Ishaq & Tariq Shah, 2019. "The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Economic Growth and Agricultural Production in Pakistan: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(24), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Daniel El Chami & André Daccache & Maroun El Moujabber, 2020. "How Can Sustainable Agriculture Increase Climate Resilience? A Systematic Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(8), pages 1-23, April.

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