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Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin (Portugal)

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  • Valverde, Pedro
  • Serralheiro, Ricardo
  • de Carvalho, Mário
  • Maia, Rodrigo
  • Oliveira, Bruno
  • Ramos, Vanessa

Abstract

This study evaluates climate change potential impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin, in the south of Portugal, by running long-term soil water balance simulations using the ISAREG model and taking into consideration the maximum potential yield. The ISAREG simulations were focused in a set of the most locally representative crops to assess the evolution of net and total water requirements, considering a monthly time step for two 30-year future periods, (2011–2040) and (2041–2070). Reference evapotranspiration was estimated using the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani equation, and the simulations were performed using, as inputs, a combination of five climate change scenarios built using the Ensemble-Delta technique from CMIP3 climate projections datasets to set different alternative climate change bracketing conditions for rainfall and air temperature. Water balance outputs for different climate scenarios were combined with four agricultural scenarios allowing for the estimation of total irrigation requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Valverde, Pedro & Serralheiro, Ricardo & de Carvalho, Mário & Maia, Rodrigo & Oliveira, Bruno & Ramos, Vanessa, 2015. "Climate change impacts on irrigated agriculture in the Guadiana river basin (Portugal)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 17-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:152:y:2015:i:c:p:17-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2014.12.012
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    1. Costa, J.M. & Vaz, M. & Escalona, J. & Egipto, R. & Lopes, C. & Medrano, H. & Chaves, M.M., 2016. "Modern viticulture in southern Europe: Vulnerabilities and strategies for adaptation to water scarcity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 164(P1), pages 5-18.
    2. Catarina Esgalhado & Maria Helena Guimaraes, 2020. "Unveiling Contrasting Preferred Trajectories of Local Development in Southeast Portugal," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-15, March.
    3. El Chami, D. & Daccache, A., 2015. "Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 19-25.
    4. Cervera-Gascó, Jorge & Montero, Jesús & Moreno, Miguel A., 2023. "An intelligent irrigation management model for direct injection of solar pumping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    5. Singh, Kuntal & McClean, Colin J. & Büker, Patrick & Hartley, Sue E. & Hill, Jane K., 2017. "Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 156(C), pages 76-84.
    6. Chenyao Yang & Helder Fraga & Wim Ieperen & Henrique Trindade & João A. Santos, 2019. "Effects of climate change and adaptation options on winter wheat yield under rainfed Mediterranean conditions in southern Portugal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 154(1), pages 159-178, May.
    7. Oduor, Brian Omondi & Campo-Bescós, Miguel Ángel & Lana-Renault, Noemí & Casalí, Javier, 2023. "Effects of climate change on streamflow and nitrate pollution in an agricultural Mediterranean watershed in Northern Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 285(C).
    8. Carina Almeida & Tiago B. Ramos & João Sobrinho & Ramiro Neves & Rodrigo Proença de Oliveira, 2019. "An Integrated Modelling Approach to Study Future Water Demand Vulnerability in the Montargil Reservoir Basin, Portugal," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
    9. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    10. Antonio Alberto Rodríguez Sousa & Jesús M. Barandica & Pedro A. Aguilera & Alejandro J. Rescia, 2020. "Examining Potential Environmental Consequences of Climate Change and Other Driving Forces on the Sustainability of Spanish Olive Groves under a Socio-Ecological Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-22, October.
    11. Lorite, I.J. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Belaj, A. & de la Rosa, R. & León, L. & Santos, C., 2018. "Evaluation of olive response and adaptation strategies to climate change under semi-arid conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 247-261.
    12. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Santos, C. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2021. "Impact of climate change on economic components of Mediterranean olive orchards," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    13. Cabezas, J.M. & Ruiz-Ramos, M. & Soriano, M.A. & Gabaldón-Leal, C. & Santos, C. & Lorite, I.J., 2020. "Identifying adaptation strategies to climate change for Mediterranean olive orchards using impact response surfaces," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    14. Ramos, Tiago B. & Darouich, Hanaa & Šimůnek, Jiří & Gonçalves, Maria C. & Martins, José C., 2019. "Soil salinization in very high-density olive orchards grown in southern Portugal: Current risks and possible trends," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 265-281.
    15. Kassahun, Habtamu Tilahun & Nicholson, Charles F. & Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl & Steenhuis, Tammo S., 2016. "Accounting for user expectations in the valuation of reliable irrigation water access in the Ethiopian highlands," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 45-55.
    16. Serra, J. & Paredes, P. & Cordovil, CMdS & Cruz, S. & Hutchings, NJ & Cameira, MR, 2023. "Is irrigation water an overlooked source of nitrogen in agriculture?," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 278(C).
    17. Ali Firoozzare & Sayed Saghaian & Sasan Esfandiari Bahraseman & Maryam Dehghani Dashtabi, 2023. "Identifying the Best Strategies for Improving and Developing Sustainable Rain-Fed Agriculture: An Integrated SWOT-BWM-WASPAS Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, June.
    18. García-López, J. & García-Ruiz, R. & Domínguez, J. & Lorite, I.J., 2019. "Improving the sustainability of farming systems under semi-arid conditions by enhancing crop management," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    19. Vamsi Krishna Vema & K. P. Sudheer & A. N. Rohith & I. Chaubey, 2022. "Impact of water conservation structures on the agricultural productivity in the context of climate change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(5), pages 1627-1644, March.
    20. Teotónio, Carla & Rodríguez, Miguel & Roebeling, Peter & Fortes, Patrícia, 2020. "Water competition through the ‘water-energy’ nexus: Assessing the economic impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean context," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    21. García-López, J. & Lorite, I.J. & García-Ruiz, R. & Ordoñez, R. & Dominguez, J., 2016. "Yield response of sunflower to irrigation and fertilization under semi-arid conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 151-162.
    22. Funes, I. & Savé, R. & de Herralde, F. & Biel, C. & Pla, E. & Pascual, D. & Zabalza, J. & Cantos, G. & Borràs, G. & Vayreda, J. & Aranda, X., 2021. "Modeling impacts of climate change on the water needs and growing cycle of crops in three Mediterranean basins," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    23. Hong, Eun-Mi & Nam, Won-Ho & Choi, Jin-Yong & Pachepsky, Yakov A., 2016. "Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 163-180.

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