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Property Tax in China: Is It Effective in Curbing Housing Price?

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  • Huanhuan Zheng

    ()
    (University of York United Kingdom and The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Qingyong Zhang

    ()
    (School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China)

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    Abstract

    This paper studies the effects of the property tax, implemented in Shanghai and Chongqing since January 28, 2011, on the housing price. Applying the synthetic control method of Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller (2010), we construct counterfactual housing price for Shanghai and Chongqing using monthly data from 33 cities that have no property tax. Comparing the counterfactual and actual price, we estimate that by November 2012 the average housing price in Shanghai was about 2127 RMB/m2 or 13.4% lower than it would have been in the absence of the property tax. This evidence is found to be significant using placebo test. We find no significant evidence that property tax is effective in curbing the housing price in Chongqing.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 2465-2474

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00421

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    Related research

    Keywords: property tax; housing price; synthetic control; real estate market boom;

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    1. Pau Rabanal & Christopher W. Crowe & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Deniz Igan, 2011. "How to Deal with Real Estate Booms," IMF Working Papers 11/91, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    3. Yothin Jinjarak & Ilan Noy & Huanhuan Zheng, 2012. "Capital Controls in Brazil – Stemming a Tide with a Signal," Working Papers 201213, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    4. Michael Keen & Alexander Klemm & Victoria Perry, 2010. "Tax and the Crisis," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(1), pages 43-79, 03.
    5. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    6. Zodrow, George R., 2001. "The Property Tax as a Capital Tax: A Room with Three Views," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 54(n. 1), pages 139-56, March.
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