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Purchasing Power Parity and Country Characteristics: Evidence from Time Series Analysis

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  • Chia-Cheng Ho

    ()
    (Department of Finance, National Chung Cheng University)

  • Su-Yin Cheng

    ()
    (Department of Finance, National Chung Cheng University)

  • Han Hou

    ()
    (Department of Finance, National Chung Cheng University)

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    Abstract

    This paper investigates the relationships between country characteristics and the validity of PPP. We use three alternative time series methods to test for the stationarity of real exchange rates for each of the 72 countries over the period from 1976 to 2005. Our result shows that the evidence of PPP exhibits geographic difference. It is most likely to find stationary real exchange rates for European countries, whereas it is least likely to obtain the result of supporting PPP for Asian countries. We then use a probit regression model to examine if county characteristics are related to the validity of PPP. The probit regression result reveals that the validity of PPP decreases with inflation rate and increases with nominal exchange rate volatility.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

    Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 444-456

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    Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-08c20096

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    Related research

    Keywords: Purchasing power parity; Country characteristics; Unit root tests;

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    1. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Tsai, Li-Ju & Chen, Show-Lin, 2004. "Are real exchange rates non-stationary? The Pacific Basin perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 425-438, April.
    2. Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?," Papers 8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
    3. Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    4. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
    5. Papell, David H., 1997. "Searching for stationarity: Purchasing power parity under the current float," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3-4), pages 313-332, November.
    6. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 2000. "On cross-country differences in the persistence of real exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 375-397, April.
    7. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
    8. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald, 1996. "Panel unit root tests and real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 7-11, January.
    10. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
    11. Oh, Keun-Yeob, 1996. "Purchasing power parity and unit root tests using panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 405-418, June.
    12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
    13. Maurice Obstfeld., 1993. "Model Trending Real Exchange Rates," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-011, University of California at Berkeley.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S., 1998. "Parity reversion in real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 597-614, August.
    15. Harris, David & Leybourne, Stephen & McCabe, Brendan, 2005. "Panel Stationarity Tests for Purchasing Power Parity With Cross-Sectional Dependence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 395-409, October.
    16. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
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