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Convergence of Sectoral Productivity in Turkish Provinces: A Markov Chains Model

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Author Info
Temel, T.
Tansel, A.
Gungor, N.D.

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Abstract

this study examines the role that sectors play in aggregate convergence of provincial labor productivity across the 67 provinces of turkey during the 1975-1990 period. a markov chain model is applied to characterize the long-run tendencies of productivity both at the aggregate and sectoral levels. in order to determine the likely sources of aggregate fluctuations, sectoral time-invariant distributions are compared with the aggregate distribution, and those sectors that exhibit similar distribution patterns as that of the aggregate distribution are characterized as dominant sectors. evidence strongly suggests that the aggregate time-invariant distribution is determined mainly by the agricultural, industrial and transportation sectors. specifically, the pattern of polarization of productivity levels in these three sectors is very similar to the pattern prevailing at the aggregate level. the results suggest that, in the long run, two convergence clubs are likely to emerge - one for the agricultural and another for the highly industrialized provinces. an exception is the service sector, which exhibits global convergence.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies .

Volume (Year): 2 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 65-84
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Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:2_6

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Related research
Keywords: convergence; aggregate and sectoral labor productivity; markov chains;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods

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  1. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-37, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Tansel, A. & Gungor, A.D., 2000. "Provincial Inequalities in School Enrollements in Turkey," Papers 2003, Economic Research Forum.
  5. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis," CEPR Discussion Papers 820, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Douglas Robertson, 1995. "Are banks converging to one size?," Working Papers 95-29, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Temel, T. & Tansel, A. & Alberson, P., 1999. "Convergence and Spatial Patterns in Labor Productivity: Non-Parametric Estimations for Turkey," Papers 9931, Economic Research Forum.
  11. Broadberry, Stephen N., 1993. "Manufacturing and the Convergence Hypothesis: What the Long-Run Data Show," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(04), pages 772-776, December. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Kenneth Button & Eric Pentecost, 1993. "Regional Service Sector Convergence," Regional Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 27(7), pages 623-636, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Tugrul Temel, 2000. "U.S. Farm Wages and Labor Market Efficiency," Growth and Change, Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky, vol. 31(3), pages 420-437. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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