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Structural Breaks In Trade And Income Per Capita In Asean-5 Countries: An Application Of Innovational Outlier Models

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  • JAYANTHAKUMARAN, Kankesu
  • PAHLAVANI, Mosayeb

Abstract

The founder members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN-5) – Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore – increasingly adopted outward-oriented policies in trade and investment by enforcing reforms in the mid-1980s. This paper investigates the existence of endogenously determined structural breaks of the trade and income per capita by using historical time series data during the period from 1970 to 2003 for the ASEAN-5 by applying an Innovational Outliner (IO) model in the presence of a potential structural break. We find that significant structural breaks occurred for trade per capita in the mid-1980s, which coincides with the recession in the region. We also find that significant structural breaks occurred for Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in 1997, which coincides with the Asian crisis. The Philippines experienced structural breaks in 1985, which coincides with a recession.

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Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:7:y:2007:i:2_18

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Related research

Keywords: Trade and GDP per capita; IO model; structural break;

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  1. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade's Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, 07.
  2. Ng, S. & Perron, P., 1994. "Unit Root Tests ARMA Models with Data Dependent Methods for the Selection of the Truncation Lag," Cahiers de recherche, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques 9423, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  3. Lee, Ha Yan & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Rigobon, Roberto, 2004. "Once again, is openness good for growth?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 451-472, December.
  4. Mosayeb Pahlavani & Abbas Valadkhani & Andrew C. Worthington, 2005. "The impact of financial deregulation on monetary aggregates and interest rates in Australia," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(3), pages 157-163, May.
  5. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
  6. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu & Sanidas, Elias, 2005. "The Impact of Unilateral and Regional Trade Liberalisation on the Intra-ASEAN 5 Founding Nations' Exports and Export-GDP Nexus," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia wp05-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  7. Jayanthakumaran, Kankesu, 2002. "The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Manufacturing Sector Performance in Developing Countries: A Survey of the Literature," Economics Working Papers, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia wp02-07, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
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