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Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries

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  • Valadkhani, A.

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Abstract

This paper selectively reviews various approaches of macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building particularly in the context of Asian countries. Addressing several issues discussed in this paper can improve the use of macroeconometric models (MEM) in forecasting and policy analysis in the foreseeable future. This survey shows that most MEMs in developing countries are either becoming smaller in size or not being subject to a thorough diagnostic investigation. In the specification of models one should consider the interplay among macroeconomic policies of different countries via international trade and global financial markets. It is argued that the Project Link and the Fair multi-country model are two initiatives in the right direction. It also appears that with advancement of econometric "know-how", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Euro-American Association of Economic Development in its journal Applied Econometrics and International Development.

Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:eaa:aeinde:v:1:y:2005:i:1_1

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Related research

Keywords: Macroeconometric modelling; Asian Developing Countries;

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References

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  1. Clive W.J. Granger & Yongil Jeon, 2003. "Interactions between large macro models and time series analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 1-10.
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  3. Sastry, V K, 1975. "The Use of Macroeconomic Regression Models of Developing Countries: A Comment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 156-65, March.
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  8. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 313-19, May.
  9. Bodkin, Ronald G. & Marwah, Kanta, 1988. "Trends in macroeconomic modeling: The past quarter century," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 299-315.
  10. Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "On the Accuracy and Properties of Recent Macroeconomic Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 0229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Fair, Ray C, 1974. "An Evaluation of a Short-Run Forecasting Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 15(2), pages 285-303, June.
  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  13. Willman, Alpo & Kortelainen, Mika & Mannisto, Hanna-Leena & Tujula, Mika, 2000. "The BOF5 macroeconomic model of Finland, structure and dynamic microfoundations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 275-303, April.
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  15. Pasaran, M.H. & Smith, R., 1995. "New Directions in Applied Macroeconomic Modelling," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9525, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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Cited by:
  1. GUISAN, Maria-Carmen, 2008. "Rates, Ratios And Per Capita Variables In International Models: Analysis Of Investment And Foreign Trade In Oecd Countries," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(2).

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