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History Of Macroeconometric Modelling: Lessons From Past Experience

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  • Abbas Valadkhani

Abstract

This paper reviews briefly the general literature on macroeconometric modelling and highlights some important lessons from more than half a century of model-building. It appears that from the late 1940s to the 1960s this field has contributed to the expanding knowledge of both economists and econometricians. However, from the early 1970s, several issues invalidated macroeconometric models. These issues are: theoretical contrasts with rational expectations theory, structural instability, the arbitrary division of endo-exogenous variables of the model, the existence of the problem of unit roots (spurious regressions) and insufficient amount of econometric \"know-how\". It is argued that with advancement of econometric \"know-how\", the disparity of opinions between advocates and critics of macroeconometric modelling can be narrowed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology in its series School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series with number 131.

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Date of creation: 20 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:qut:dpaper:131

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Herce, José A., 2008. "European cohesion policy and the Spanish economy: A policy discussion case," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 559-570.
  2. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
  3. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2007. "Macroeconometric Modelling In An Oil Exporting Country: The Case Of Iran," Economics Working Papers wp07-14, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  4. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  5. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании
    [Technologica
    ," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
  6. Bayangos, V.B., 2006. "Exchange rate uncertainty and monetary transmission in the Philippines," ISS Working Papers - General Series 19193, International Institute of Social Studies of Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISS), The Hague.
  7. Diebolt, Claude, 2009. "Editorial introduction: Advances in historical macroeconomics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-4, March.

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