IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cys/ecocyb/v50y2016i1p157-174.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Connections Between Sentiment Indices And Reduced Volatilities Of Sustainability Stock Market Indices

Author

Listed:
  • Iulia LUPU

    (Center for Financial and Monetary Research “Victor Slăvescu”)

  • Gheorghe HURDUZEU

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

  • Mariana NICOLAE

    (The Bucharest University of Economic Studies)

Abstract

Capital markets provide the framework for the evaluation of a wide selection of issues, ranging from investors’ psychological profiles to likelihoods of various expected long-term, i.e. sustainable scenarios. Using a large class of models from the GARCH family to estimate conditional volatilities, we perform a comparative analysis of the dynamics of risks for two classes of indices: on one hand the sustainability indices, built as portfolios of companies active in the fields of sustainable development, and on the other hand a series of regular stock market indices, used as benchmarks for regular economic performance. We found clear evidence that the risk of benchmark indices, measured using many volatility models from the GARCH family is larger than the ones characterizing the sustainability related counterparts. This paper shows that that these differences in volatilities exhibit explanatory power for economic sentiment indices employing a MIDAS methodology that allows for the connection of time series with different frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Iulia LUPU & Gheorghe HURDUZEU & Mariana NICOLAE, 2016. "Connections Between Sentiment Indices And Reduced Volatilities Of Sustainability Stock Market Indices," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(1), pages 157-174.
  • Handle: RePEc:cys:ecocyb:v:50:y:2016:i:1:p:157-174
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://www.eadr.ro/RePEc/cys/ecocyb_pdf/ecocyb1_2016p157-174.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
    2. Ziegler, Andreas & Schröder, Michael, 2010. "What determines the inclusion in a sustainability stock index?: A panel data analysis for european firms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 848-856, February.
    3. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
    4. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Utz, Sebastian, 2012. "Safety first portfolio choice based on financial and sustainability returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(1), pages 155-164.
    5. Breeda Comyns & Frank Figge & Tobias Hahn & Ralf Barkemeyer, 2013. "Sustainability reporting: The role of “Search”, “Experience” and “Credence” information," Accounting Forum, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 231-243, September.
    6. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    7. Mollet, Janick Christian & Ziegler, Andreas, 2014. "Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 208-216.
    8. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    11. Christophe Croux & Sébastien Laurent, 2011. "Outlyingness Weighted Covariation," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(4), pages 657-684.
    12. Oberndorfer, Ulrich & Schmidt, Peter & Wagner, Marcus & Ziegler, Andreas, 2013. "Does the stock market value the inclusion in a sustainability stock index? An event study analysis for German firms," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 497-509.
    13. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
    14. Cheung, Adrian (Wai Kong) & Roca, Eduardo, 2013. "The effect on price, liquidity and risk when stocks are added to and deleted from a sustainability index: Evidence from the Asia Pacific context," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 51-65.
    15. Pan, Jiahua, 1994. "A synthetic analysis of market efficiency and constant resource stock for sustainability and its policy implications," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 187-199, December.
    16. Boudt, Kris & Croux, Christophe & Laurent, Sébastien, 2011. "Robust estimation of intraweek periodicity in volatility and jump detection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 353-367, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. de Oliveira, Erick Meira & Cunha, Felipe Arias Fogliano de Souza & Palazzi, Rafael Baptista & Klotzle, Marcelo Cabus & Maçaira, Paula Medina, 2020. "On the effects of uncertainty measures on sustainability indices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olusanya E. Olubusoye & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2016. "Time series analysis of volatility in the petroleum pricing markets: the persistence, asymmetry and jumps in the returns series," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 40(3), pages 235-262, September.
    2. Vacca, Gianmarco & Zoia, Maria Grazia & Bagnato, Luca, 2022. "Forecasting in GARCH models with polynomially modified innovations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-141.
    3. Sébastien Laurent & Luc Bauwens & Jeroen V. K. Rombouts, 2006. "Multivariate GARCH models: a survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 79-109.
    4. BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011. "Volatility models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
      • Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Mehmet Sahiner, 2022. "Forecasting volatility in Asian financial markets: evidence from recursive and rolling window methods," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(10), pages 1-74, October.
    6. Bei, Shuhua & Yang, Aijun & Pei, Haotian & Si, Xiaoli, 2023. "Price Risk Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    7. Małgorzata Just & Aleksandra Łuczak, 2020. "Assessment of Conditional Dependence Structures in Commodity Futures Markets Using Copula-GARCH Models and Fuzzy Clustering Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2018. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Working Papers hal-01710398, HAL.
    9. Algieri, Bernardina, 2014. "The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 227-247.
    10. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2021. "A Survey on Volatility Fluctuations in the Decentralized Cryptocurrency Financial Assets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-46, June.
    12. Frezza, Massimiliano, 2014. "Goodness of fit assessment for a fractal model of stock markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 41-50.
    13. Li, Gang & Li, Yong, 2015. "Forecasting copper futures volatility under model uncertainty," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(P2), pages 167-176.
    14. Roy Cerqueti & Massimiliano Giacalone & Raffaele Mattera, 2020. "Skewed non-Gaussian GARCH models for cryptocurrencies volatility modelling," Papers 2004.11674, arXiv.org.
    15. Rachna Mahalwala, 2022. "Analysing exchange rate volatility in India using GARCH family models," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(9), pages 1-16, September.
    16. Saker Sabkha & Christian de Peretti, 2022. "On the performances of Dynamic Conditional Correlation models in the Sovereign CDS market and the corresponding bond market," Post-Print hal-01710398, HAL.
    17. Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
    18. Caroline Michere Ndei & Stephen Muchina & Kennedy Waweru, 2019. "Modeling stock market return volatility in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from Nairobi Securities Exchange, Kenya," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 8(5), pages 156-171, September.
    19. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Ma, Feng & Wu, Chongfeng, 2016. "What the investors need to know about forecasting oil futures return volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 128-139.
    20. Samet Gunay & Audil Rashid Khaki, 2018. "Best Fitting Fat Tail Distribution for the Volatilities of Energy Futures: Gev, Gat and Stable Distributions in GARCH and APARCH Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-19, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility; sustainability indices; stock market; high-frequency data; MIDAS regression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cys:ecocyb:v:50:y:2016:i:1:p:157-174. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Corina Saman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feasero.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.