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The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

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  • Algieri, Bernardina

Abstract

Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity price. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor’s (S&P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity does not. Finally, the GARCH model has shown that current variance is influenced more by its past values than by the previous day’s shocks, and there is high persistence, meaning that variance slowly decays and prompts a sluggish “revert to the mean.” The multivariate BEKK framework confirms the results of the univariate setting.

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  • Algieri, Bernardina, 2014. "The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices," Discussion Papers 164963, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:ubzefd:164963
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.164963
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    3. Chia-Lin Chang & Yiying Li & Michael McAleer, 2018. "Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Agricultural Markets: A Critical Appraisal of Theory and Practice," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-19, June.
    4. Jebabli, Ikram & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Time-varying efficiency in food and energy markets: Evidence and implications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 97-114.
    5. Mollick, André Varella & Sakaki, Hamid, 2019. "Exchange rates, oil prices and world stock returns," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 585-602.
    6. Chia-Lin Chang & Chia-Ping Liu & Michael McAleer, 2016. "Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-046/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Helmut Herwartz & Alberto Saucedo, 2020. "Food–oil volatility spillovers and the impact of distinct biofuel policies on price uncertainties on feedstock markets," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 51(3), pages 387-402, May.
    8. Diego Perrone & Angelo Algieri & Pietropaolo Morrone & Teresa Castiglione, 2021. "Energy and Economic Investigation of a Biodiesel-Fired Engine for Micro-Scale Cogeneration," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-28, January.
    9. Kocak, Emrah & Bilgili, Faik & Bulut, Umit & Kuskaya, Sevda, 2022. "Is ethanol production responsible for the increase in corn prices?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 689-696.
    10. Algieri, Bernardina & Kalkuhl, Matthias & Koch, Nicolas, 2017. "A tale of two tails: Explaining extreme events in financialized agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 256-269.
    11. Trumbo, Jennifer L. & Tonn, Bruce E., 2016. "Biofuels: A sustainable choice for the United States' energy future?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 147-161.
    12. Xinyu Yuan & Jiechen Tang & Wing-Keung Wong & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2020. "Modeling Co-Movement among Different Agricultural Commodity Markets: A Copula-GARCH Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-17, January.
    13. Algieri, Angelo & Andiloro, Serafina & Tamburino, Vincenzo & Zema, Demetrio Antonio, 2019. "The potential of agricultural residues for energy production in Calabria (Southern Italy)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Algieri, Bernardina & Leccadito, Arturo, 2017. "Wave after Wave: Contagion Risk from Commodity Markets," Discussion Papers 257801, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
    15. Ondřej Filip & Karel Janda & Ladislav Krištoufek, 2018. "Ceny biopaliv a souvisejících komodit: analýza s použitím metod minimální kostry grafu a hierarchických stromů [Prices of Biofuels and Related Commodities: an Analysis Using Methods of Minimum Span," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2018(2), pages 218-239.
    16. Matthias Kalkuhl & Mekbib Haile & Lukas Kornher & Marta Kozicka, 2015. "Cost-benefit framework for policy action to navigate food price spikes. FOODSECURE Working Paper No 33," FOODSECURE Working papers 33, LEI Wageningen UR.

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