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La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX

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  • Juan Esteban Carranza

Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar el impacto sobre el default hipotecario de la política que regulaba la indexación de los saldos hipotecarios durante la década de los noventa. Argumentamos en el artículo que la política introducida por las autoridades económicas colombianas durante los primeros anos de la década, tuvo un efecto sustancial sobre la tasa de default hipotecario observada durante la crisis económica y financiera que ocurrió a finales de la década. Hacemos un análisis econométrico basado en un modelo de default óptimo y una muestra aleatoria de hipotecas vigentes entre 1997 y 2004. Los resultados implican que las variables más importantes en la determinación del default observado fueron los saldos de las hipotecas y los precios de los bienes raíces, mas no la caída del ingreso. Además, estimamos que aproximadamente la mitad del default observado entre las hipotecas iniciadas después de 1996 fue causado por la política de indexación de los saldos con la tasa de interés.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008921
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    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/revistadys/Articulo67_3.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hofstetter, Marc & Tovar, Jorge & Urrutia, Miguel, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 3106, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Mauricio Cárdenas & Alejandro Badel F., 2003. "La crisis de financiamiento hipotecario en Colombia: causas y consecuencias," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
    3. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, 2000. "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 275-308, March.
    4. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 008749, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    5. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis financiera; default hipotecario; elección discretadinámica.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

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