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La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX

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  • Juan Esteban Carranza

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Abstract

El objetivo de este artículo es evaluar el impacto sobre el default hipotecario de la política que regulaba la indexación de los saldos hipotecarios durante la década de los noventa. Argumentamos en el artículo que la política introducida por las autoridades económicas colombianas durante los primeros años de la década, tuvo un efecto sustancial sobre la tasa de default hipotecario observada durante la crisis económica y financiera que ocurrió a finales de la década. Hacemos un análisis econométrico basado en un modelo de default óptimo y una muestra aleatoria de hipotecas vigentes entre 1997 y 2004. Los resultados implican que las variables más importantes en la determinación del default observado fueron los saldos de las hipotecas y los precios de los bienes raíces, mas no la caída del ingreso. Además, estimamos que aproximadamente la mitad del default observado entre las hipotecas iniciadas después de 1996 fue causado por la política de indexación de los saldos con la tasa de interés.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its journal REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008921

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Related research

Keywords: crisis financiera; default hipotecario; elección discretadinámica.;

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References

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  1. Alejandro Badel & Mauricio Cárdenas, 2003. "La crisis de financiamiento hipotecario en Colombia: causas y consecuencias," IDB Publications 7642, Inter-American Development Bank.
  2. Salvador Navarro & Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "Identification of dynamic models with aggregate shocks with an application to mortgage default in Colombia," 2011 Meeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 008749, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  4. Yongheng Deng & John M. Quigley & Robert Van Order, . "Mortgage Terminations, Heterogeneity and the Exercise of Mortgage Options," Zell/Lurie Center Working Papers, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania 322, Wharton School Samuel Zell and Robert Lurie Real Estate Center, University of Pennsylvania.
  5. Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  6. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-90, July.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  2. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN 011208, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.

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