IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rei/ecoins/v17y2015i32p233-257.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

¿Hay una burbuja inmobiliaria en Bogotá? Un estudio por segmentos de mercado

Author

Listed:
  • Vanessa Cediel Sánchez
  • Carlos Velásquez Vega

Abstract

En 2014 los precios de la vivienda en Bogotá superaron el promedio histórico y el nivel más alto hasta ahora registrado, lo que hace pensar en una burbuja inmobiliaria. En este artículo se hace una prueba estadística, la prueba de detección temprana de burbujas, que identifica crecimientos explosivos de las series de precios por metro cuadrado. Se detectaron crecimientos exuberantes en la mayoría de las zonas, y se constató que hay diferencias por grupos de zonas. En las más costosas, parte del aumento de precios obedece a la acción de los especuladores; en las de menor valor, los precios obedecen a presiones de demanda y a mejoras en la capacidad de pago, así como a la ayuda del gobierno reflejada en la reducción de las tasas de interés hipotecarias para estos segmentos de la población.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanessa Cediel Sánchez & Carlos Velásquez Vega, 2015. "¿Hay una burbuja inmobiliaria en Bogotá? Un estudio por segmentos de mercado," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 17(32), pages 233-357, January-J.
    • Handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:17:y:2015:i:32:p:233-257
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.uexternado.edu.co/facecono/ecoinstitucional/workingpapers/vcediel32.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," DOCUMENTOS CEDE 008749, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
    2. Marc Hofstetter & Jorge Tovar & Miguel Urrutia, 2011. "Effects of a Mortgage Interest Rate Subsidy: Evidence from Colombia," Documentos CEDE 8749, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    3. José E. Gómez-González & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Catalina Rey-Guerra & Natalia Sicard, 2013. "Testing for bubbles in housing markets: new results using a new method," Globalization Institute Working Papers 164, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Sergio Clavijo & Michel Janna & Santiago Muñoz, 2004. "LA VIVIENDA EN COLOMBIA: Sus Determinantes Socio-Económicos y Financieros," Borradores de Economia 3099, Banco de la Republica.
    5. J. Rosser & Marina Rosser & Mauro Gallegati, 2012. "A Minsky-Kindleberger Perspective on the Financial Crisis," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 449-458.
    6. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mauricio Alejandro Oyarzo Aguilar & Dusan Paredes Araya, 2017. "The impact of mining patents on public education: evidence for mining municipalities in Chile," Documentos de Trabajo en Economia y Ciencia Regional 72, Universidad Catolica del Norte, Chile, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2017.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gan-Ochir Doojav & Davaasukh Damdinjav, 2021. "Policy-Driven Boom and Bust in the Housing Market: Evidence from Mongolia," Asian Development Review (ADR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(02), pages 279-317, September.
    2. Juan Esteban Carranza, 2011. "La indexación de los saldos hipotecarios y la crisis colombiana de final de siglo XX," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.
    3. Citera, Emanuele & Sau, Lino, 2019. "Complexity, Conventions and Instability: the role of monetary policy," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201924, University of Turin.
    4. Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Jair N. Ojeda-Joya & Juan P. Franco & Jhon E. Torres, 2017. "Asset Price Bubbles: Existence, Persistence and Migration," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 85(1), pages 52-67, March.
    5. Juan Diego Lopez Rodriguez & Miguel D. Ramirez, 2016. "Are Controls Effective in Curbing Private Capital Flows in Colombia? A Time-Series Analysis," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 5(1), pages 23-34.
    6. Juan Pablo Ríos Ocampo & Yris Olaya Morales, 2017. "Sustainability of the domestic consumption of construction materials in Colombia, 1990-2013," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 127-151, Enero - J.
    7. Milton Camelo Rincón & Jacobo Campo Robledo, 2016. "Análisis de la política de vivienda en Bogotá: un enfoque desde la oferta y la demanda," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 8(1), pages 105-122, March.
    8. Sergio Cerezo Aguirre, 2014. "Boom en el sector inmobiliario en Bolivia: ¿burbuja o fundamentos económicos?," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 20(1), pages 75-118, June.
    9. Emanuele Citera & Lino Sau, 2021. "Reflexivity, Financial Instability and Monetary Policy: A ‘Convention-Based’ Approach," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(2), pages 327-343, April.
    10. Olaya, Yris & Vásquez, Felipe & Müller, Daniel B., 2017. "Dwelling stock dynamics for addressing housing deficit," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 187-199.
    11. Ríos Ocampo, Juan Pablo & Olaya Morales, Yris, 2016. "Sostenibilidad del consumo doméstico de materiales de construcción en Colombia, 1990-2013," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 86, pages 127-151, December.
    12. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ & Gabriel PIRAQUIVE GALEANO, 2014. "Evolución de los precios de la vivienda en Colombia," Archivos de Economía 11208, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    13. Leonardo Santana Viloria, 2015. "Estimación del beta para el sector inmobiliario a partir del desempeno de fondos de inversión inmobiliaria en Colombia," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 7(1), pages 83-95, January.
    14. Lukas Richau & Florian Follert & Monika Frenger & Eike Emrich, 2021. "The sky is the limit?! Evaluating the existence of a speculative bubble in European football," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 91(6), pages 765-796, August.
    15. Greg Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_839, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. John García Rendón & Carlos Esteban Posada Posada, 2022. "Determinantes de los precios relativos de la vivienda: Bogotá versus Medellín," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 52, pages 93-105, December.
    17. Ehsan Ahmed & J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. & Jamshed Y. Uppal, 2016. "A Raging Bull or a Long-term Speculative Bubble? The Puzzling Case of the Karachi Stock Exchange," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 55(2), pages 79-93.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    burbujas inmobiliarias; Bogotá; prueba de raíz unitaria;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rei:ecoins:v:17:y:2015:i:32:p:233-257. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Paola Rodríguez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/feextco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.