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Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts

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  • Georges Prat
  • Remzi Uctum

Abstract

Using Consensus Economics? monthly surveys, we show that experts? interest rate expectations in the Eurofranc market do not verify the rational expectations hypothesis. These expectations are found to be generated by a mixed process combining the traditional adaptive, regressive and extrapolative processes augmented by macroeconomic effects (price, income, money). This mixed expectational process verifies the term structure relation of interest rates based on the portfolio choice model with a long term asset and a short term asset, where a state-space representation is introduced to account for the unobservable part of the long term asset in the portfolio. As predicted by the theoretical model, the risk premium depends on the conditional expected variance of the short term asset and on the conditional expected covariance between the latter and inflation, while the estimated value of the relative risk aversion coefficient is found to be economically acceptable. Overall, these results support that experts? expectations are consistent with the model of interest rate term structure. JEL Classification : D81, D84, E43

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Boeck Université in its journal Recherches économiques de Louvain.

Volume (Year): 76 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 195-217

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Handle: RePEc:cai:reldbu:rel_762_0195

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Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-recherches-economiques-de-louvain.htm

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Keywords: term structure of interest rates; expectations; risk premium;

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  1. Feige, Edgar L & Pearce, Douglas K, 1976. "Economically Rational Expectations: Are Innovations in the Rate of Inflation Independent of Innovations in Measures of Monetary and Fiscal Policy?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(3), pages 499-522, June.
  2. Kenneth A. Froot, 1987. "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 2363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Roll, Richard, 1971. "Investment Diversification and Bond Maturity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 51-66, March.
  4. Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1997. "The term structure of Euro-rates: some evidence in support of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 305-321, April.
  5. Sargent, Thomas J, 1969. "Commodity Price Expectations and the Interest Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 127-40, February.
  6. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  7. Roley, V Vance, 1981. "The Determinants of the Treasury Security Yield Curve," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(5), pages 1103-26, December.
  8. R. Mehra & E. Prescott, 2010. "The equity premium: a puzzle," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1401, David K. Levine.
  9. Dobson, Steven W & Sutch, Richard C & Vanderford, David E, 1976. "An Evaluation of Alternative Empirical Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(4), pages 1035-65, September.
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