The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in Southeast Asia
AbstractThis paper addresses the issue of both domestic and cross border systemic risk for 8 countries in Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, The Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand). We use weekly data on individual bank stock prices from 2000 to 2005 to construct bank contagion measures based on the exponential weighted average correlations of the residuals of the market model. Our results show that average pair-wise correlations significantly differ among countries and that the probability that a specific shock extends to other banks is better explained by asset risk indicators and market based risk measures, such as systematic risk, for cross country contagion. In contrast, for domestic contagion, liquidity risk indicators and bank opaqueness proxies perform better. Our findings suggest that whereas illiquidity, but not insolvency, is a major concern at the domestic level the opposite result holds for cross country contagion.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Presses de Sciences-Po in its journal Revue économique.
Volume (Year): 59 (2008)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.cairn.info/revue-economique.htm
Other versions of this item:
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2007. "The Determinants of Domestic and Cross Border Bank Contagion Risk in South East Asia," Working Papers hal-00918555, HAL.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Worthington & Helen Higgs, 2004. "Transmission of equity returns and volatility in Asian developed and emerging markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 71-80.
- Reint Gropp & Jukka Vesala & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004.
"Market indicators, bank fragility, and indirect market discipline,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 53-62.
- Reint Gropp & Vesala Jukka & Giuseppe Vulpes, 2004. "Market Indicators, Bank Fragility, and Indirect Market Discipline," Finance 0411015, EconWPA.
- Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004.
"Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements,"
NBER Working Papers
7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Hans Byström, 2003.
"The Market's View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons,"
Research Paper Series
93, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2004. "The market's view on the probability of banking sector failure: cross-country comparisons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(5), pages 419-438, December.
- Byström, Hans, 2003. "The Market’s View on the Probability of Banking Sector Failure: Cross-Country Comparisons," Working Papers 2003:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
- Kaminsky, Graciela L. & Reinhart, Carmen M., 2000.
"On crises, contagion, and confusion,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 145-168, June.
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2003.
"The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 727-754, 05.
- Massimo Sbracia & Andrea Zaghini, 2001. "The Role of the Banking System in the International Transmission of Shocks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 409, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- Gianni De NicolÃ³ & Myron L. Kwast, 2002. "Systemic Risk and Financial Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 02/55, International Monetary Fund.
- De Nicolo, Gianni & Kwast, Myron L., 2002. "Systemic risk and financial consolidation: Are they related?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 861-880, May.
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2009.
"The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia,"
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2009. "The determinants of bank stock return's co-movements in East Asia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1596-1601.
- Carlos Bautista & Philippe Rous & Amine Tarazi, 2008. "The Determinants of Bank Stock Returns' Co-Movements in East Asia," Working Papers hal-00916496, HAL.
- Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2009.
"Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion,"
2009-008, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jean-Baptiste de Vathaire).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.