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Risk analysis in Turkey milk production

Author

Listed:
  • Halil Kizilaslan

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Gaziosmanpasa University, Tokat, Turkey)

  • Nuray Kizilaslan

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Gaziosmanpasa University, Tokat, Turkey)

Abstract

The present study has been done in order to determine the risks inherent in the milk production in Turkey. For that objective, factors such as the milk yield, the gross revenues realised, and the price levels as reflected to the producer's benefits, have been taken into account. Upon the calculation of the measures for variables, fluctuations were found in the milk yield, prices, and gross revenues. Based on the hypothesis that the information possessed by the producer on the economic and technological developments is scarce and restrained, the variable coefficient has been calculated as 10.81% for yield, 23.26% for prices, and 30.01% for gross revenues, respectively. With the hypothesis that the producers are aware of and informed on the economic and technological developments, these ratios, that is to say, the fortuitous variable coefficients would be, respectively, 2.07%, 15.96%, and 16.07%. According to the conclusions reached, an environment in which the producers can take rational decisions concerning the milk production can be said not to exist. For this reason, the government intervention through efficient measures for the dairy production will be necessary. Furthermore, the producers should be given informational support through the published studies in the agricultural extension.

Suggested Citation

  • Halil Kizilaslan & Nuray Kizilaslan, 2007. "Risk analysis in Turkey milk production," Czech Journal of Food Sciences, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 25(3), pages 144-150.
    • Handle: RePEc:caa:jnlcjf:v:25:y:2007:i:3:id:743-cjfs
    DOI: 10.17221/743-CJFS
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. D. J. Pannell, 1990. "Responses To Risk In Weed Control Decisions Under Expected Profit Maximisation," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(3), pages 391-401, September.
    2. John D. Hey, 2002. "Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 27(1), pages 5-21, June.
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