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How Far Ahead Do People Plan?

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  • John Hey
  • Julia Knoll

Abstract

We report on a simple experiment which enables us to infer how far people plan ahead when taking decisions in a dynamic risky context. Usually economic theory assumes that people plan right to the end of the planning horizon. We find that this is true for a little over half of the subjects in the experiment, while a little under one half seem not to plan ahead at all.

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File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/2006/0617.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 06/17.

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Date of creation: Aug 2006
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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:06/17

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Postal: Department of Economics and Related Studies, University of York, York, YO10 5DD, United Kingdom
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Fax: (0)1904 323759
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Web page: http://www.york.ac.uk/economics/
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Keywords: Planning; dominance; myopia; naivety; sophistication;

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References

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  1. John D. Bone & John D. Hey & John R. Suckling, 2003. "Do people plan ahead?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(5), pages 277-280, April.
  2. Enrica Carbone & John Hey, 2001. "A Test of the Principle of Optimality," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 263-281, May.
  3. John D. Hey, 2002. "Experimental Economics and the Theory of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 27(1), pages 5-21, June.
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Cited by:
  1. repec:hal:wpaper:halshs-00692024 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Anesi, Vincent & De Donder, Philippe, 2008. "Secondary Issues and Party Politics: An Application to Environmental Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 6774, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Pradiptyo, Rimawan & Sahadewo, Gumilang Aryo, 2012. "On The Complexity of Eliminating Fuel Subsidy in Indonesia; A Behavioral Approach," MPRA Paper 40045, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Ondrej Rydval & Andreas Ortmann & Michal Ostatnicky, 2007. "Three Very Simple Games and What It Takes to Solve Them," Jena Economic Research Papers 2007-092, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
  5. Christian Lukas & Jens Robert Schöndube, 2008. "Trust and Adaptive Learning in Implicit Contracts," FEMM Working Papers 08017, Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg, Faculty of Economics and Management.
  6. Darryl Seale & William Stein & Amnon Rapoport, 2014. "Hold or roll: reaching the goal in jeopardy race games," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 419-450, March.
  7. Ariane Lambert-Mogiliansky & Jerome Busemeyer, 2012. "Quantum Type Indeterminacy in Dynamic Decision-Making: Self-Control through Identity Management," Games, MDPI, Open Access Journal, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 97-118, May.

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