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Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation

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  • Selover David D.

    ()
    (Old Dominion University)

  • Jensen Roderick V.

    (Wesleyan University)

  • Kroll John

    (Old Dominion University)

Abstract

This study investigates the synchronization of business cycles in different sectors of the economy. Business cycles in different industries or sectors have a tendency to synchronize with one another in what appears to be a national business cycle, yet trade between sectors may not be strong enough for one sector to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another sector. How are these sectors synchronized? This study suggests that the national business cycle results from a "mode-locking" phenomenon between different sectors, a nonlinear process through which weak coupling between oscillating systems (sectors) tends to synchronize the fluctuations between the oscillating systems (sectors). Simulations, statistical analysis, and spectral analysis are used to attempt to verify this hypothesis. Investigation reveals a moderate amount of econometric support for the sectoral mode-locking hypothesis of business cycle formation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by De Gruyter in its journal Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics.

Volume (Year): 7 (2003)
Issue (Month): 3 (October)
Pages: 1-39

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Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:7:y:2003:i:3:n:2

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Cited by:
  1. Makoto Nirei, 2004. "Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004, Society for Computational Economics 330, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. William Barnett & Mehmet Dalkir, 2005. "Gains from Synchronization," International Trade, EconWPA 0504004, EconWPA.
  3. Y. Ikeda & H. Aoyama & Y. Fujiwara & H. Iyetomi & K. Ogimoto & W. Souma & H. Yoshikawa, 2011. "Coupled Oscillator Model of the Business Cycle with Fluctuating Goods Markets," Papers 1110.6679, arXiv.org.

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