Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles
AbstractThis paper proposes a model of endogenous fluctuations in investment. A monopolistic producer has an incentive to invest when the aggregate demand is high. This causes a propagation of investment across sectors. When the investment follows an (S,s) policy, the propagation size can exhibit a significant fluctuation. We characterize the probability distribution of the propagation size, and show that its variance can be large enough to match the observed investment fluctuations. We then implement this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model to explore an investment-driven business cycle. By calibrating the model with the SIC 4-digit level industry data, we numerically show that the model replicates the basic structure of the business cycles
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 330.
Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
Date of revision:
(S; s) policy; aggregation; propagation; heavy-tailed distribution;
Other versions of this item:
- Makoto Nirei, 2004. "Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles," 2004 Meeting Papers 774, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
- E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2004-07-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CMP-2004-07-26 (Computational Economics)
- NEP-MAC-2004-07-26 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Selover David D. & Jensen Roderick V. & Kroll John, 2003. "Industrial Sector Mode-Locking and Business Cycle Formation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(3), pages 1-39, October.
- Julia K. Thomas, .
"Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?,"
GSIA Working Papers
1998-E250, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
- Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 508-534, June.
- Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is lumpy investment relevant for the business cycle?," Staff Report 302, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Eric J. Bartelsman & Wayne Gray, 1996. "The NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database," NBER Technical Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998.
"Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April.
- Mark Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1994. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Working Papers 94-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
- Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Bak & Kan Chen & Jose Scheinkman & Michael Woodford, 1992.
"Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks: Self-Organized Criticality in a Model of Production and Inventory Dynamics,"
NBER Working Papers
4241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bak, Per & Chen, Kan & Scheinkman, Jose & Woodford, Michael, 1993. "Aggregate fluctuations from independent sectoral shocks: self-organized criticality in a model of production and inventory dynamics," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 3-30, March.
- Vives, X., 1988.
"Nash Equilibrium With Strategic Complementarities,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
107-88, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
- Ricardo J. Caballero & Eduardo M.R.A. Engel, 1991.
"Dynamic (S,s) Economies,"
NBER Working Papers
3734, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April.
- Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1975.
"Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity,"
The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS)
64, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
- Caplin, Andrew S & Spulber, Daniel F, 1987.
"Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 703-25, November.
- Nirei, Makoto, 2006. "Threshold behavior and aggregate fluctuation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 309-322, March.
- Yoshikawa, Hiroshi & Ohtake, Fumio, 1987. "Postwar business cycles in Japan: A quest for the right explanation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 373-407, December.
- Shleifer, Andrei, 1986.
3451303, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Cochrane, John H., 1994.
Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy,
Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 295-364, December.
- Xavier Gabaix, 2009.
"The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations,"
NBER Working Papers
15286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.