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Lumpy Investment, Sectoral Propagation, and Business Cycles

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Author Info
Makoto Nirei

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Abstract

This paper proposes a model of endogenous fluctuations in investment. A monopolistic producer has an incentive to invest when the aggregate demand is high. This causes a propagation of investment across sectors. When the investment follows an (S,s) policy, the propagation size can exhibit a significant fluctuation. We characterize the probability distribution of the propagation size, and show that its variance can be large enough to match the observed investment fluctuations. We then implement this mechanism in a dynamic general equilibrium model to explore an investment-driven business cycle. By calibrating the model with the SIC 4-digit level industry data, we numerically show that the model replicates the basic structure of the business cycles

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Paper provided by Society for Computational Economics in its series Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 with number 330.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:330

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Keywords: (S; s) policy; aggregation; propagation; heavy-tailed distribution;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Capital; Investment; Capacity
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Lawrence J. Cristiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1998. "The business cycle: it's still a puzzle," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 56-83. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter Bak & Kan Chen & Jose Scheinkman & Michael Woodford, 1992. "Aggregate Fluctuations from Independent Sectoral Shocks: Self-Organized Criticality in a Model of Production and Inventory Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 4241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Julia K. Thomas, 2002. "Is Lumpy Investment Relevant for the Business Cycle?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(3), pages 508-534, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shleifer, Andrei, 1986. "Implementation Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(6), pages 1163-90, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Yoshikawa, Hiroshi & Ohtake, Fumio, 1987. "Postwar business cycles in Japan: A quest for the right explanation," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 373-407, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Caballero, Ricardo J & Engel, Eduardo M R A, 1991. "Dynamic (S, s) Economies," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1659-86, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eric J. Bartelsman & Wayne Gray, 1996. "The NBER Manufacturing Productivity Database," NBER Technical Working Papers 0205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Vives, Xavier, 1990. "Nash equilibrium with strategic complementarities," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 305-321. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Mark E. Doms & Timothy Dunne, 1998. "Capital Adjustment Patterns in Manufacturing Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(2), pages 409-429, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Andrew C. Caplin & Daniel F. Spulber, 1987. "Menu Costs and the Neutrality of Money," NBER Working Papers 2311, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Dupor, Bill, 1999. "Aggregation and irrelevance in multi-sector models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 391-409, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Nirei, Makoto, 2006. "Threshold behavior and aggregate fluctuation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 309-322, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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