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Unconventional monetary policy in a nonlinear quadratic model

Author

Listed:
  • Faulwasser Timm

    (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany)

  • Gross Marco
  • Loungani Prakash

    (IMF, Washington, USA)

  • Semmler Willi

    (New School for Social Research, New York, USA)

Abstract

After the financial market meltdown and the Great Recession of the years 2007–9, the financial market-macro link has become an important issue in monetary policy modeling. We develop a dynamic model that contains a nonlinear Phillips curve, a dynamic output equation, and a nonlinear credit flow equation – capturing the importance of credit cycles, risk premia, and credit spreads. Our Nonlinear Quadratic Model (NLQ) model has three dynamic state equations and a quadratic objective function. It can be used to evaluate the response of central banks to the Great Recession in moving from conventional to unconventional monetary policy. We solve the model with a new numerical procedure using estimated parameters for the euro area. We conduct simulations to explore the (de)stabilizing effects of the nonlinearities in the model. We demonstrate that credit flows, risk premia, and credit spreads play an important role as an amplification mechanism and in affecting the transmission of monetary policy. We thereby highlight the importance of the natural rate of interest as an anchor for a central bank target and the weight it places on the credit flows for the effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy. Our model is similar in structure compared to larger scale macro-econometric models which many central banks employ.

Suggested Citation

  • Faulwasser Timm & Gross Marco & Loungani Prakash & Semmler Willi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy in a nonlinear quadratic model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(5), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:24:y:2020:i:5:p:19:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/snde-2019-0099
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Braga, Joao Paulo & Semmler, Willi & Grass, Dieter, 2021. "De-risking of green investments through a green bond market – Empirics and a dynamic model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit cycles; credit spread; inflation targeting; nonlinear Phillips curve; NLQ model; RS-VAR; unconventional monetary policy; E42; E52; E58;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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