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Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change

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  • Gerling Lena

    (University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics, Scharnhorststrasse 100, 48151 Münster, Germany, Phone: +49 251 24304)

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of urban protests on coup attempts and subsequent regime change in a sample of 39 Sub-Saharan African countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. Widespread public discontent, especially when occurring in urban centers, can act as a trigger of coups d’état in autocratic regimes. Yet, it is less clear how elites respond to protests in terms of post-coup institutional change and democratization. To account for potential endogeneity of protests and coups, variation in rainfall is used as an instrument for urban protests. The results show that rainfall-related urban protests raise the likelihood that a coup is staged, but have no effect on subsequent democratization.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerling Lena, 2017. "Urban Protests, Coups d’état and Post-Coup Regime Change," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:23:y:2017:i:4:p:8:n:11
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2017-0033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Coup d’état; public protest; regime change; autocracy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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