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A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq

Author

Listed:
  • Blank Larry

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Enomoto Carl E.

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Gegax Douglas

    (New Mexico State University)

  • McGuckin Thomas

    (New Mexico State University)

  • Simmons Cade

    (New Mexico State University)

Abstract

This paper uses a system of differential equations to describe the insurgency in Iraq. The system has four possible outcomes or cases: (1) The U.S.-led coalition increases in size and the number of attacks by the insurgents increases. (2) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of attacks by insurgents decreases. (3) The size of the U.S.-led coalition increases and the number of insurgent attacks decreases. (4) The size of the U.S.-led coalition decreases and the number of insurgent attacks increases. Which case is relevant depends on the recruitment rates of the U.S.-led coalition and insurgents as well as the combat effectiveness of both sides. Policy implications are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Blank Larry & Enomoto Carl E. & Gegax Douglas & McGuckin Thomas & Simmons Cade, 2008. "A Dynamic Model of Insurgency: The Case of the War in Iraq," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 1-28, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:14:y:2008:i:2:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1554-8597.1120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Scott Atran, 2006. "The Moral Logic and Growth of Suicide Terrorism," Post-Print ijn_00000676, HAL.
    2. Sandler,Todd & Hartley,Keith, 1995. "The Economics of Defense," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521447287.
    3. Joao Ricardo Faria & Daniel Arce, 2005. "Terror Support And Recruitment," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 263-273.
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    Cited by:

    1. Berkok Ugurhan G., 2013. "Shape and Consequences of Military Missions: An Introduction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-7, April.
    2. Giorgio Gallo, 2013. "Conflict Theory, Complexity and Systems Approach," Systems Research and Behavioral Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 156-175, March.
    3. Alvarez-Ramirez Jose & Rodriguez Eduardo & Tyrtania Leonardo & Urrea-Garcìa Galo R, 2010. "Regime-Transitions in the 2003-2010 Iraq War: An Approach Based on Correlations of Daily Fatalities," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-41, December.
    4. Coram Alex & Noakes Lyle, 2010. "Super-Agents and the Problem of Controlling the Dynamics of Regional Arms Races," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-42, September.

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