To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labor Markets
AbstractWe construct a dynamic error correction model of the Australian labor market using a macroeconomic panel across seven states from 1972:3 to 1999:1. Medium-run equilibrium estimates support a real wage-productivity gap and an unemployment gap. The dynamic short-run estimates support expectations-augmented Phillips curves for wages and prices, and demand-led employment growth. We compare three procedures pooled, aggregate and mean group estimates. Considerable heterogeneity existed across states in the pooled procedure, and state-level variables had a significant impact in the aggregate procedure. Out-of-sample aggregate forecasting for the pooled, aggregate and mean group procedures suggests that the pooled one performs best.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by De Gruyter in its journal The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics.
Volume (Year): 7 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
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Web page: http://www.degruyter.com
Other versions of this item:
- Chaudhuri, Kausik & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2003. "To Pool or to Aggregate? Tests with a Dynamic Panel Macroeconometric Model of Australian State Labour Markets," Working Papers 1, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
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